College Football Notebook: The Stretch Drive Begins

The first College Football Playoff rankings were released earlier this week, signaling the stretch drive of the regular season has arrived. We’ll size up the bracket and look at the key storylines to watch in November.

Here is how the field would look if the season ended today:

(8)Texas Tech – (9)Oregon winner to play (1)Ohio State
(5)Georgia – 12)Memphis winner to play (4)Alabama
(6)Ole Miss – (11)Virginia winner to play (3)Texas A&M
(7)BYU – (10)Notre Dame winner to play (2)Indiana
First Five Out: Texas, Oklahoma, Utah, Louisville, Vanderbilt

Please note that the final two teams in, Virginia and Memphis, are there by virtue of automatic qualification. The ACC is guaranteed one spot, as is the “Group of Five” conferences (American, Mountain West, Conference USA, Sun Belt, MAC). If the top 12 teams in the rankings were chosen, Texas and Oklahoma would also be in. This also means that Oregon and Notre Dame are closer to the edge than their seeds indicate, as the final two at-large qualifiers chosen.

Thus, the stage is set for November. Here’s what we’re watching in this space:

ALL EYES ON TEXAS

The Longhorns might narrowly miss the field if the season ended today. But of course, it doesn’t end today. And between and now and the final bracket release on Sunday, December 7, Texas has plenty of opportunities to play their way in. The Longhorns still have games at Georgia and at home against Texas A&M. It’s impossible to fathom Texas winning out and not qualifying.

From the archive: In 1983, Texas came within a hair of winning a national championship, before being derailed by Georgia.

But can Texas do it? They’ve got high-quality wins over fellow contenders in Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, the reason the ‘Horns are in realistic control of their fate. They’ve also lost to Florida, which is the reason they have no margin for error left against a good schedule.

Arch Manning has not lived up to the hype this year at quarterback, with a pedestrian 63% completion rate and being a little too mistake prone. His 7.9 yards-per-attempt are, by the standards of a college QB at an elite program, nothing special. And it’s the reason Texas is just 61st nationally in points scored.

Before coming down too hard on Arch, this is a systemic problem. The college graders at Pro Football Focus rank Texas’ pass protection as just 76th in the country. But whatever the root cause and whatever it means for Arch’s NFL future, the short-term problem remains—the Longhorns have issues throwing the ball, especially making big plays.

What Texas can do is defend. They rank 12th in the nation in points allowed. Colin Simmons is an elite playmaker at defensive end with eight sacks. The Longhorn D grades out in the top 10 in tackling and coverage. When you play defense like this, you’re going to be in games with a chance to win.

Now, it’s just up to whether or not Texas can find some offense in time to save their season. And while Notre Dame and Oregon have their own difficult November tests ahead (the Irish play good teams in Navy and Pitt, while the Ducks have Iowa, USC, and Washington still on the docket), the fans in South Bend and Eugene need to also keep an eye on the rearview mirror, with that burnt orange truck coming up behind them.

CHASING THE AUTO-BIDS

The spots currently held by Virginia and Memphis will come down to the final week, as several teams not listed on the board at the top will be in the mix to get this automatic bids.

In the ACC, Georgia Tech and Pitt join Louisville and Virginia in pushing to reach the conference championship game where the auto-bid will be settled.

Pitt has the most explosive offense and plays respectable defense, but they do have a program history that usually sees them find a way to lose in the biggest spots.

We also can’t write off Miami and SMU. The Hurricanes were riding high until losing a couple of league games put them into a very difficult spot. The Mustangs, a playoff team a year ago, are more likely to play spoiler this time around, with a home game against Louisville in November. But with some breaks, they could sneak into second place and make the ACC Championship Game.

Please note that some notable non-conference games—Pitt’s battle with Notre Dame and Georgia Tech’s traditional rivalry with Georgia will mean more to the Irish and Bulldogs. They won’t impact the Panthers and Yellow Jackets’ pursuit of the ACC’s playoff spot.

Memphis is the highest-ranked team in a very competitive American Conference, and they are the best balanced team among five contenders, a group that includes Navy, North Texas, South Florida, and Tulane.

North Texas has scored the second-most points of any one in the country, but teams with leaky defenses rarely survive November unscathed. Tulane has tested themselves against good competition outside the league, playing Ole Miss. The Green Wave look more like a respectable bowl team rather than a true playoff contender—but they can change that perception and the standings with a game against Memphis on Friday night.

One way or another, the Group of Five bid is probably going to the American Conference champ. Although San Diego State in the Mountain West and James Madison in the Sun Belt only have one loss and are worth keeping an eye on if the American contenders start devouring each other.

THE BIG 12 POWER TRIO

BYU and Texas Tech would make the field if the season ended today. Utah is right on the fringe. The Cougars and Red Raiders play this Saturday, and the winner almost certainly sets themselves up to be in Dallas for the Big 12 Championship Game. The Utes, having lost to both contenders, need a little help to get into second place and earn a rematch for the playoff spot.

Texas Tech is the most interesting of the three teams, ranking in the top five nationally for both points scored and points allowed. They have a well-balanced running attack with Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams. They can bring a lot of pressure defensively with disruptors in David Bailey and Romello Height. Of all the Big 12 contenders, the Red Raiders are the ones it’s easiest to envision making a big impact in the playoffs—if they can get there.

THE BIG SIX

We’ve held off on the top six teams in the seedings until last, because in all likelihood we’ll be talking more in-depth about all of them after the final bracket reveal in December. This is particularly true of Ohio State and Indiana, who would have to do something almost unthinkable to miss the playoffs. Even their anticipated showdown in the Big Ten Championship Game is likely to be more superfluous, with both teams in position to have top-4 national rankings and first-round byes well in hand by then.

The SEC quartet of Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss and Texas A&M is a little more intriguing, mainly because of the storyline we started with at the top—if Texas knocked off Georgia and A&M, it could shake up the picture. The Aggies, with a defense that only ranks 60th in the country, seem more vulnerable than most to an unexpected slide in November. But Texas A&M is also the only undefeated team in this group and almost certainly has a loss (or more) to give. But in either case, the jousting for top-4 position and a bye will be worth watching.

THE CALM BEFORE THE BRACKET

The dynamic of college football’s regular season has drastically changed with the advent of a 12-team playoff bracket as opposed to four. Some of the urgency for the top teams is deferred to December and January. But November still promises a certain amount of uncertainty and chaos, it’s still a time when there’s hope in a lot of locker rooms, and it should be fun to watch.

When the final bracket is set in early December, we’ll have a thorough breakdown of everyone that got in, as we set the stage for the four-round tournament. And here in this space, we’ll be back next week—with some baseball talk, after the major awards are announced on Thursday, November 13 (9 PM ET, MLB Network). In the meantime, explore the archives and enjoy the great patrimony that is American sports.