College Football Notebook: 2025 Season Preview
The countdown to college football is on. To get started, I decided to focus on teams whose betting odds for the national championship were less than 100-1 and then fill it out enough to make sure we at least included all playoff teams from last year, along with at least two contenders from each of the four power conferences.
That got us to 24 teams overall, which is enough to provide a good early look at the race for the 12-team postseason. Here’s a snapshot look at those initial 24 contenders, with their title odds in parentheses…
THE FAVORITES
Ohio State (5-1)
After losing 14 players to the NFL draft, the defending champs have a lot of rebuilding to do, and they open the season at home with Texas on August 30. But there aren’t many places that are better to rebuild than in Columbus. And not many players better to do it with than the great wide receiver, Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes also have the best safety in the country in Caleb Downs and a pair of lockdown corners in Davison Igbinosun and Jermaine Matthews. The imported a productive tight end in Max Kline. It’s just about finding their sea legs early and getting new quarterback Julian Sayin settled in.
Texas (5-1)
The hype for Arch Manning is off the charts, with the Longhorn quarterback favored to win the Heisman Trophy. The nephew of Peyton and Eli needs to be all that and more this year because there’s a lot of retooling to do offensively. The schedule, as noted, starts with a road trip to Ohio State and includes a visit to Florida in October, all before the annual Red River Rivalry with Oklahoma. The ‘Horns need to get to their road game with Georgia in November with a loss to give, which means losing no more than one game prior. That depends not just on Arch, but on a defense that has a veteran secondary and playmaking linebackers in Anthony Hill and Trey Moore.
Georgia (7-1)
Kirby Smart believes that last season was his best coaching job, and I think that’s true too. Finding a way to win an SEC title with a pedestrian passing game and problematic running game was impressive. As a result, I’m not as concerned as others may be about the Dawgs losing Carson Beck. I think going with Gunnar Stockton at quarterback is at least a wash and might even be an upgrade. The bigger concern with Georgia is that we have to see some concrete evidence that their running game will be better, and they suffered their usual heavy losses to the NFL on defense.
Oregon (8-1)
Dan Lanning is 35-6 in his tenure in Eugene, but has yet to make it to either the four-team playoff or the national semifinals. I don’t see how it gets any easier this year. The Ducks have a lot of size in the trenches, but this is a roster with a lot of unknowns. They brought in a good running back, Maki Hughes from Tulane. But it’s still a time for rebuilding and wondering how much of a hangover lingers from that hideous national quarterfinal showing against Ohio State last year in Pasadena.
Penn State (8-1)
The Nittany Lions lost a couple of great players in pass-rusher Abdul Carter and tight end Tyler Warren, but quite a few key guys came back. Penn State will have a veteran offensive line, and both ends of their potent two-headed running game—Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen—decided to return. So did quarterback Drew Allar, and the Lions replenished the receiving corps with veterans from the transfer portal. Jim Knowles, who coordinated last year’s national championship defense in Ohio State jumped ship and came to Happy Valley. The only tough road game on the schedule is the visit to Columbus on November 1.
Of all the teams on this top level, Penn State has the fewest question marks. James Franklin has to get it done this year. Playoff wins over SMU and Boise State, like last year, were a nice start, but their semifinal loss to Notre Dame should haunt Franklin and he has everything he needs to make up for it this time around.
THE CHALLENGERS
Alabama (12-1)
The pressure is on Kalen DeBoer in his second season walking in the shoes of Saban and the Bear. ‘Bama has explosive receivers in Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams. They have a good offensive line, which should allow a running game to flourish. There’s experience in the secondary and the front seven looks good. All that’s left to find out is whether Ty Simpson can hack it at quarterback. A one-time 5-star recruit, he bided his time for two years on the bench. The Tide have an early road game at Florida State and a mid-September home date with Wisconsin, although it’s hard to know what to make of either opponent. The first definite test will be September 27 at Georgia.
LSU (14-1)
Brian Kelly’s teams at LSU have been consistent, but that includes consistently losing 3-4 games a year. Kelly needs to make the playoffs this year. Whether the Tigers do it depends on the combination of quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, running back Caden Durham and receiver Aaron Anderson becoming a legitimate Big Three. The defense has an all-SEC linebacker in Whit Weeks and incoming edge rusher Patrick Payton was the ACC Rookie of the Year at Florida State. LSU doesn’t overwhelm you, but they have playmakers on both sides of the ball. It’s on Kelly to fill in the support pieces around them
Notre Dame (14-1)
The run to the national championship game last year had the feel of a magic ride, as the Irish seemed to win with smoke and mirrors in beating Georgia and Penn State in the postseason. They’ll have a tough running game, with both Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price back and running behind an offensive line that should be steady. Malachi Fields can juice up the receiving corps as a veteran transfer from Virginia. The defense is hard to get a read on—the playmakers from last year are gone, but quite a few of the projected starters at least got playing time last season. And the biggest question mark is freshman quarterback C.J. Carr, a prized recruit who redshirted last season.
Clemson (14-1)
Clemson snuck into the playoffs last year by eking out a win over SMU in the ACC Championship Game. The Tigers look more legitimate this season. Cade Klubnik seems to be following a more traditional growth pattern at quarterback—going through some growing pains and then finally coming into his own, rather than sinking or swimming right off the bat. Klubnik has three really good receivers in Bryant Wesco, T.J. Moore, and Antonio Williams. There’s a veteran offensive line. Defensive line play has been a Clemson staple under Dabo Swinney and this year will be no different, with T.J. Parker and Peter Woods. Free safety Khalil Brown anchors a solid secondary.
Of all the teams on this second level, Clemson is the one that should be on the top tier. This Tiger team has no weaknesses, they have a battle-tested head coach, and they brought in respected defensive coordinator Tom Allen from Penn State.
THE DARK HORSES
Ole Miss (25-1)
Lane Kiffin’s team cost themselves a playoff spot last year by losing close games to inferior teams, and now they have to replace quarterback Jaxon Dart. They also have to replace virtually everyone else. The building blocks are pass-rushing linebacker Suntarine Perkins, and a receiving corps that got a good infusion from the portal. Austin Simmons steps in for Dart. The Rebels need to get to 6-0 by the time they visit Georgia and the schedule gets tougher.
Michigan (28-1)
Freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood has become the poster child from everything you either love or hate about the new world of a wide-open transfer portal combined with NIL money. Committed to LSU, Underwood was enticed away by a $12 million package from the Wolverines. All that money will come with pressure, as the rest of the offense has question marks. A defense that played well down the stretch last year also lost a lot of its key players, but added veteran transfers at defensive tackle in Tre Williams and Damon Payne. And if games are close, Michigan’s kicking game is as good as any.
Miami (30-1)
The Hurricanes have collapsed down the stretch for three straight years, defensive woes being the primary culprit. There have been staff changes on that side of the ball, and they threw a lot of money at Carson Beck to transfer from Georgia. As noted, I’m a Beck skeptic, but he does have a good offensive line to protect him and allow some running backs to emerge. Miami’s first four games are at home, a stretch that includes Notre Dame and Florida. If the ‘Canes are for real, they will sweep September and get to 4-0.
Tennessee (30-1)
After making the playoffs, the Vols had a bizarre offseason, with quarterback Nico Imaleava bolting for UCLA in a publicized NIL dispute. In turn, projected Bruin quarterback Joey Aguilar, who had just transferred from Appalachian State, switched gears and came to Knoxville. It all underscores the fluidity on the offensive side of the ball for Tennessee right now. But they played good defense a year ago and quite a few veterans are back. The Vols host Georgia on September 13. Win that one, and they can be 6-0 and in the mix when it’s time to visit Alabama.
Texas A&M (35-1)
The Aggies are going to run the ball effectively, with Le’Veon Moss operating behind a good offensive line. The back seven of the defense also looks good. They need sophomore quarterback Marcel Reed to mature in his second year as a starter and clean up mistakes, and a defensive line needs to be built. This is a program that seems to find ways to underperform expectations. Last year, that started with a home loss to Notre Dame in the season opener. Going to South Bend on September 13 of this year and winning would be a way of showing this year’s team is different.
South Carolina (40-1)
Shane Beamer had this team playing well down the stretch last year and they nearly snuck into the playoffs. Doing that all over again looks like a tall order. The offensive line and much of the defense is going through a remodeling process. The Gamecocks have some pieces—defensive end Dylan Stewart is a playmaker, and they brought in 1,800-yard rusher Rashul Faisun from Utah State. LaNorris Sellers is an intriguing threat at quarterback. He won SEC Freshman of the Year, but he could also be inconsistent. That’s a lot of question marks in an unforgiving conference. But if Shane beats his father Frank’s old program of Virginia Tech to open the season in Atlanta, he could get to 5-0 by the LSU game on October 11.
Florida (40-1)
That the Gators have given head coach Billy Napier four years, amidst consistent disappointment, is rather astonishing in this day and age. If Napier doesn’t win significantly this year, it’s hard to think there will be a fifth season. He’s got a veteran offensive line led by the nation’s best center in Jake Slaughter. Napier has a veteran defense. He got one of the best high school receivers in the country in Dallas Wilson. Now, it’s all about developing sophomore quarterback D.J. Lagway.
THE LONGSHOTS
Oklahoma (65-1)
Brent Venables is another coach who has to win this season if he wants to be employed at the same place in 2026. Venables built his reputation for defense and that side of the ball has been pretty good in Norman. Linebacker Kip Lewis is a playmaker and even in a bad year, the Sooners played spoiler when they shut down Alabama 24-3 in November. But the offense was awful. It’s fate—and that of Venables—depends on quarterback John Mateer, who transferred in from Washington State. He’ll be protected by an offensive line that is heavily transfers.
SMU (65-1)
The Mustangs made the playoffs last year thanks to an offense that was surging down the stretch. Kevin Jennings, a very good all-around quarterback is back, and Jordan Hudson leads up a deep group of receivers. The SMU defense has a playmaker at safety in Ahmaad Moses, and this unit added veteran help in the portal. There’s no reason to think the Mustangs won’t at least be in the playoff conversation come November.
Louisville (75-1)
The Cardinals went 9-4 last year and the losses were all close games, but the natives are getting restless for head coach Jeff Brohm to do something big. I’m not sure that I see it this year. The offensive line and defense are being rebuilt. Brohm got a veteran transfer at quarterback in Miller Moses, but he lost his job at USC towards the end of last season. Louisville has an easy early schedule to build momentum, but they need to be 5-0 by the Miami game to be taken seriously.
USC (80-1)
After Lincoln Riley switched from the aforementioned Moses to Jaydon Maiava at quarterback, the Trojans played better football. But they still looked outmatched in the Big Ten, and they still haven’t really done anything since blowing their 2022 season in the Pac-12 Championship Game and then in the Cotton Bowl against Tulane. Riley will be relying on portal infusions to rebuild the offensive line. And the biggest problem with Riley’s teams, both here and at Oklahoma, have been with defense. While he gets pass-rushing defensive end Anthony Lucas back from injury, the USC D was only 56th in the country last year. The good news? The schedule is set up for a 4-0 start while Riley shuffles his transfers into place.
Arizona State (80-1)
Arizona State is the first Big 12 team on the board, so their playoff chances are higher than the others listed at this level. The Sun Devils got in last year behind the great work of running back Cam Skattebo, who is now gone to the NFL. Arizona State still looks pretty good. Sam Leavitt was a breakout star as a freshman quarterback and is back. So is wide receiver Jordyn Tyson. Four offensive lineman return, which should give an up-and-coming runner a chance to make a name for himself. And nine starters are back from what was a good defense. ASU is still the team to beat in the Big 12.
Indiana (100-1)
Head coach Curt Cignetti brought in Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who played pretty well last year behind a terrible offensive line. Mendoza will find the O-Line in Bloomington to be in good shape, and he’ll find an excellent receiver in Elijah Sarratt. The offense that was the second-most prolific in the nation will be productive again this year. The defense, which ranked sixth nationally in scoring, loses a lot of volume, but the players they get back are important. Aiden Fisher is an anchor at middle linebacker. Mikail Kamara is a top pass-rusher. D’Angelo Ponds is a lockdown corner. Don’t sleep on the Hoosiers.
Kansas State (100-1)
The Wildcats are going to be a strong contender in the Big 12. Avery Johnson is a good dual-threat quarterback. Dylan Edwards is an explosive running back, the wide receivers are experienced, and enough portal help came in to keep the offensive line going. The defensive line is an experienced group with continuity. The keys will be rebuilding the secondary, as well as getting the new O-Line cohesive quickly—because K-State has an early opener against Iowa State in Ireland on August 23. And they play Army on September 6. We’ll know a lot about Kansas State very quickly.
Boise State (200-1)
The Broncos are the only non-power conference team anywhere near the national picture right now, and as such, are strong favorites to make the playoffs. Whie Ashton Jeanty is gone, Maddux Madsen is a tough quarterback, the offensive line is experienced, and so is the secondary. Jayden Virgin-Morgan is a difference-maker on the defensive edge. Boise State deserves to be heavily favored over Mountain West challengers San Jose State, UNLV and Air Force. And the Broncos are still head-and-shoulders above potential American Conference contenders in Army, Navy and Tulane, who will all vie for the one playoff spot guaranteed to programs outside the Power 4/Notre Dame structure. If Boise could go to Notre Dame on October 4 and win, it would further validate their status.
CONCLUSION
That’s our initial look at the 2025 college football landscape. I’m very high on Clemson and Penn State coming out of the chute. I think Alabama is going to jump back up. While Ohio State is in flux, it’s hard to think the Buckeyes aren’t going to be there at the end. Everyone else I’m kind of waiting to see. That’s especially true in the Big 12, where this list only scratched the surface of teams who can legitimately win that league and make the postseason. But this is a good starting point—sitting here on the Fourth of July, I’ll make Dabo and Clemson my preseason #1.