NFL Notebook: Wild-Card Round Preview

NFL Wild-Card Weekend will go on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Here’s our concise preview of all six games. We’ll take them in scheduled order. The point spread and Over/Under is listed next to the favorite:

SATURDAY

LA Chargers (-2.5, 42.5) – Houston (4:30 PM ET, CBS)
The Chargers have the best defense in the league and the ability of the Texans to get anything going is the overriding question of the game. I really like C.J. Stroud, and he’s got a good deep threat with Nico Collins. Stroud uses tight end Dalton Schultz and running back Joe Mixon in the passing game. That’s all well and good, but is C.J. going to have time to throw the football? And is anyone going to get open? The Charger secondary is solid on the corners and safety Derwin James can roam and make plays. Houston is going to need to run the ball with Mixon, and I’m not sure where he finds the running room.

Los Angeles will face their own set of challenges offensively, starting with the running game. This side of the ball also features the biggest individual showdowns. Houston’s edge rushers, Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson are the kinds of playmakers that can lead an upset at home. But they’ll have to go through tackles Rashawn Slater, the second-best LT in the league, and Joe Alt, an emerging rookie star. If head coach Jim Harbaugh mixes in some draws and misdirection runs to J.K. Dobbins to keep Hunter and Anderson at home, Houston’s pass rush could be slowed.

The Chargers just look to be a step ahead of the Texans right now. L.A.’s biggest challenge may be an intangible one—even though they’re playing on the road, to what extent did the terrible fires still ransacking their home area disrupt their focus? Far from the most important question about the fires, but still relevant here.

Pick: Chargers 30 Texans 17

Pittsburgh – Baltimore (-9.5, 43.5) (8 PM ET, Amazon Prime)
Baltimore is the better team, up and down the lineup. They’re playing at home. They’re hot, and Pittsburgh has lost their last four games. Everything points to a rout, which is why the Steelers are the biggest underdog of the weekend.

But before we just advance the Ravens forward, let’s talk this through. No defense in the league has a trio of front seven disrupters the caliber of T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward, and Alex Highsmith for the Steelers. No team in the league has a kicker like Chris Boswell—and how many times do playoff games come down to a field goal? Pittsburgh’s special teams play overall is significantly better than Baltimore’s.

All of the above adds up to a lot of under-the-radar ways the Steelers can get some momentum-changing big plays. Then there’s the fact that we’ve seen this movie with Mike Tomlin before—everything looks hopeless, and then he wills an improbable effort.

It’s not enough that I would pick Pittsburgh to actually pull the outright upset. Their problems at corner are still too severe, and providing help to the perimeter in the passing game opens up space for Derrick Henry to start pounding away. Lamar Jackson probably gets the most significant playoff win of his career, but it won’t come easy.

Pick: Ravens 24 Steelers 20

SUNDAY

Denver – Buffalo (-8.5, 47.5) (1 PM ET, CBS)
I’ve really got this game on Upset Alert. Denver has a tough and physical offensive line, and the Buffalo defense can be vulnerable. The Broncos could start moving the chains, grinding clock, keeping Josh Allen off the field and gradually turning up the pressure on a favorite who has been knocked out at home each of the last two years.

On the flip side, the Bills offensive front is leaky, and the Broncos’ third-best defense in the league can contain James Cook and put all the pressure on Allen. Denver has a pass rush that can get after Allen and Patrick Surtain is one of the league’s best cover corners. There’s a reason Allen is the favorite to win the MVP award and it’s that his dual threat capability has basically carried this offense. But the playoffs can be cruel for teams that rely so heavily on one player.

That said, the Broncos are the 7-seed for a reason. For all the advantages their offensive line provides, the running backs haven’t put up big numbers. Javonte Williams needs to run well. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has played well down the stretch, but the operative word here is still “rookie,” and this is a raucous road environment.

Sean Payton has turned Denver into a rising force. Whether the stage is too big for his young quarterback will be the most important factor in deciding whether the journey continues. Or, if Allen can keep putting Buffalo’s otherwise declining lineup on his back and willing them to wins.

Pick: Broncos 23 Bills 20

Green Bay – Philadelphia (-5.5, 45.5) (4:30 PM ET, Fox)
Jalen Hurts is the issue that looms over this game—in fact, over the entire first round. Hurts finally cleared the concussion protocol this afternoon and will play. But it’s been a few weeks since he’s seen live game action. Now that we know he’s going to play, how sharp is he going to be?

Philadelphia’s best path to win would be to get some big passing plays down the field against Green Bay corners that are vulnerable. But if Hurts isn’t sharp, beware of free safety Xavier McKinney, one of the best ballhawks in the NFL. I’d like to see Nick Sirianni dial up some designed runs for Hurts early on. Let him get hit. It obviously has its risks, but Hurts’ body should be fresh, and the hits might help him settle back into football rhythm a little quicker.

The other issue for the Eagles is tackling. Defensively, they are better than the Packer offense at most spots. Philadelphia can cover, they can rush to the passer, and they can win battles in the trenches. But they’re a mediocre tackling team and Green Bay’s Josh Jacobs is terrific after contact.

If the Packers combine being able to run the ball with getting Jordan Love outside the pocket, they can win for the second straight year as the 7-seed. If the Eagles can open up the Packer defense, it will give Saquon Barkley room to operate. Another factor to watch is Green Bay’s defensive pursuit—it’s great, but it does leave open holes for cutbacks. Not every back can take advantage of that. Barkley can. This is the toughest game to analyze, which makes it the most intriguing to watch.

Pick: TBD, still working over scenarios with Hurts.

Washington– Tampa Bay (-3, 50.5) (8 PM ET, NBC)
You will notice that to this point, we haven’t indulged in this usual analytical approach of just comparing the two quarterbacks, as though they’re starting pitchers in baseball. Football is more complex than that. This game is the exception. Commanders-Bucs looks like a little game of one-on-one between Jayden Daniels and Baker Mayfield.

Both teams are mediocre to subpar on defense, and would probably be worse, if not for the fact that two pretty good defensive minds are coaching them (Dan Quinn and Todd Bowles). Both teams rank in the top 5 for scoring offense. This has all the markings of a shootout.

In Washington’s favor, Daniels—in spite of being a rookie—is less mistake-prone than Mayfield. In Tampa’s favor, Bucky Irving is a little bit better at running back than Brian Robinson. That’s undoubtedly the product of the Buccaneer offensive line being a little bit better than its Commander counterpart. It’s easy to see why betting markets see these teams as even, with Tampa just getting the customary three points for homefield.

Pick: Bucs 38 Commanders 34

MONDAY

Minnesota (-2.5, 47.5)– LA Rams (Glendale, AZ) (8 PM ET, ABC)
This game has been directly affected the California fires, with the Rams not able to play at home and the change in venue just announced yesterday. It’s more than Los Angeles losing the home crowd advantage. They also lost a key intangible—the Rams had the potential to catch the Vikings on a letdown, after Minnesota’s Sunday Night loss in Detroit that cost the Vikes the 1-seed. Now, it’s L.A. facing major challenges in focusing on football amidst what’s happening at home.

Los Angeles needed every edge they could get because they’re not as good as Minnesota. The Vikings should be able to run the ball with Aaron Jones. If that happens, Sam Darnold can get the passing game opened up to Justin Jefferson. While the Rams can probably generate a running game with Kyren Williams, they don’t have nearly the big-play firepower the Vikings do. What’s more, Minnesota pass rushers Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard can make Matthew Stafford’s life rough.

What Los Angeles does have is this—a head coach with a demonstrated record of winning in the postseason, going up against a franchise that has positively mastered the art of losing when everyone expects them to win. That’s something for the Rams to hang their hat on, but it’s not anything I’m ready to predict.

Pick: Vikings 37-17

We’ll see everyone back here on Saturday to recap the College Football Playoff semifinals and then again on Tuesday to discuss these six NFL games.