NFL Notebook: Super Bowl Preview

The end of the line. After a combined 284 regular season and playoff games, the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs will bring the 2024 sports calendar to a close with Sunday’s Super Bowl from New Orleans (6:30 PM ET, Fox). Here’s our look at how it breaks down…

The Eagles
You can go through everything from traditional stats to the player grades over at Pro Football Focus and not find a single weakness in the Philadelphia lineup. They combine that depth with star power.  

The running game is a prime example. Philadelphia’s offensive line has three players—Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson at the tackles, and Landon Dickerson at left guard that grade out as a top-5 player at their position. That gives plenty of room for Saquon Barkley to run, and no one in the NFL exploits open space better.

Barkley, who averaged 125 yards per game during a regular season that saw him finish third in the MVP voting, has been even better in the postseason, averaging 147 yards in the victories over Green Bay, the LA Rams, and Washington.

Jalen Hurts has been tough to read in the playoffs, thanks to the concussion that cost him the final weeks of the regular season. His completion percentage actually ticked up a bit in the NFC playoffs, but his yards-per-attempt took a sharp drop from 8.0 to 7.3.

What Hurts always had going for him though, is that he wasn’t making mistakes. He’s spreading the ball around, getting tight end Dallas Goedert, and both receivers, DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown, involved. And in the NFC Championship Game against the Commanders, Hurts got the big plays opened up. Whether that was due to Washington’s defense not being very good remains to be seen—especially now that Hurts will face a defense that is truly outstanding.

Defensively, Philadelphia allowed just 18ppg during the regular season, second-best in the league. They are giving up 20ppg in the playoffs. While some of that is undoubtedly due to the fact that every team you play at this point is good, it also has to be pointed out that the Eagle defense has played each postseason game at home in weather that should favor defenses.

The Rams game in particular is a potential red flag—playing in a heavy snow, Philadelphia got carved up late by Matthew Stafford and nearly blew a seemingly comfortable lead. Had Washington not turned the ball over, Jayden Daniels was also having his way.

But that said, Philadelphia’s defensive lineup is every bit as good as the offense. Their defensive line is capable of dominating. Nolan Smith at outside linebacker and corner Quinyon Mitchell have made big plays. Zack Baun and Oren Burks are elite players at inside linebacker. When the Eagles go nickel, Cooper DeJean is as good a cover man as there is in the league. The talent is there. The regular season performance was there. And it’s not like the playoff performance has been bad. But it needs to be tightened up on Sunday night.

The Chiefs
This wasn’t Patrick Mahomes’ best season. The Kansas City offense was middle-of-the-league, and Mahomes personal numbers were pedestrian. That has changed in the playoffs. The Chiefs have averaged 28ppg in their wins over Houston and Buffalo. Mahomes, after a regular season where his yards-per-attempt  was a game-manager like 6.8, has opened up. The Chiefs got 8.3 yards-per-pass in the AFC playoffs. Xavier Worthy has been a consistent target and the great tight end, Travis Kelce, has made big plays.

The running game has also improved. Kareem Hunt doesn’t get a lot of work, with a combined 25 carries and 108 yards in the two postseason games. But he’s gotten his yards-per-carry up over 4, something that was not the case during the regular season.

Creed Humphrey, the K.C. center, grades out as the best center in the league. Joe Thuney, playing in his sixth Super Bowl, shifted from guard to left tackle and has strengthened that key position. However, that opened up holes in the middle.

This is going to be Kansas City’s biggest challenge on Sunday, matched up against a great Philly defensive front. Will they be able to run the ball up the middle? Will Mahomes have to be rolled out to avoid pressure, something that effectively cuts the field in half?

The Chiefs’ defense isn’t as talented as their Eagle counterparts, but the results are there. Chris Jones is a less-publicized version of Mahomes—a championship player, through-and-through, and he’s had a great year on the interior. George Karlaftis is a pass-rusher who played his best football in the AFC playoffs. Leo Chenal is a terrific middle linebacker, and Trent McDuffie is a top corner.

Even with K.C. having some weak spots, this star power has been more than enough for coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to produce a top-5 defense. A key factor to watch on Sunday will be the play of Jaylen Watson at corner. A player who falls into the “good-but-not-great” category, if Watson can hold up, he and McDuffie can take away the Eagles’ deep passing game and allow more focus to go on containing Barkley.

How Does It Play Out?
Each team has a victory scenario that is very logical. The Eagles have more good football players than the Chiefs. On the flip side, if the game is close in the fourth quarter, who wants to bet against the ability of Andy Reid to make a key adjustment or Mahomes to make the game-changing play?

To go to the “elephant in the room” subject, are the Chiefs going to get a big call in their favor?  Given that most NFL games, regardless of any talent disparity, are close, all of this would point to Kansas City.

But it’s worth pointing out that Philadelphia won in this same scenario against New England to end the 2017 season—the more talented Eagles survived the championship-tested Patriots because their defensive line made the big play (forcing a Tom Brady fumble on the decisive drive).

Furthermore, when you look at coach/QB combos, Nick Sirianni and Hurts don’t have the pedigree of Reid/Mahomes. But Sirianni is a winner, while Hurts plays mistake-free football and is tough. When it comes to the officiating, will the NFL—feeling the media heat—overcompensate and make some debatable big calls against the Chiefs?

Finally, while I wouldn’t expect a blowout, or even a decisive win, if that is the outcome, the most likely scenario is that Philadelphia’s talent advantage simply asserted itself. All of this points to the Eagles.

Both teams have realistic paths. I like Philly’s a little bit more. I’ll pick the Eagles in a 24-20 game.  We’ll be back in this space on Monday to look back on what happens.