NFL Notebook: Divisional Round Preview

The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs goes this weekend, with doubleheader action on both Saturday and Sunday. Here’s our preview of all four games. The point spread and Over/Under are listed in parentheses next to the favorite.

SATURDAY

Houston – Kansas City (-8.5, 41.5) (4:30 PM ET, ESPN)
The difference in pedigree between the two teams leaves K.C. as a comfortable favorite, but I think this matchup has some of the most interesting storylines. Fundamentally, it’s down to this basic question—how is each offense going to move the ball? The Chiefs have had problems in the deep passing game all year, and facing a Texans pass rush led by Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson isn’t going to make giving Patrick Mahomes the time to get downfield any easier. Nor do the Chiefs run the ball well.

Houston has its own problems. They have weapons—Nico Collins stretching the field and tight end Dalton Schultz working underneath. But Kansas City has been one of the league’s best defenses all year long, they’re rested after a bye and that great Arrowhead crowd is a problem for any offense to deal with. A running game would help, but the great K.C. defensive tackle Chris Jones is there to clog things up and Houston running back Joe Mixon will probably be playing hurt.

The challenge for the Texans will be keeping Mahomes in the pocket and not letting him use his unmatched improvisational skill. Kansas City may also be able to create some favorable matchups with Travis Kelce against a suspect group of Houston safeties.

As their bid for a historic three-peat begins, the Chiefs are a very flawed favorite. How much does homefield and championship intangibles count for? In this case, I think it’s enough to move forward. Mahomes has played in the AFC Championship Game every year that he’s been a starter, and I won’t be the one to predict the streak ending this weekend.

Pick: Kansas City, 24-17

Washington – Detroit (-8.5, 55.5) (8 PM ET, Fox)
Let’s state the obvious. Detroit is better. In all phases of the game. But is there a path where Washington could win? Yes, we all know that in sports there are times when favorites completely melt down and underdogs play way over their head. I’m talking about a realistic chance—a pathway built on viable strengths and weaknesses. The answer is yes.

Detroit’s offensive line will be missing left guard Kevin Zeitler. This is an extremely good unit, and will still be good without Zeitler, but that’s a big piece to take out of the middle. Particularly when right guard is the Lion line’s only real weak point. Can Washington put some pressure on Jared Goff up the middle because of it? Can the run ball on the interior? Will a reduced ability to rush inside be what blows up Dan Campbell’s go-for-broke approach on fourth-and-short.

If the Commanders can piece together even a bit of a running game to help Jayden Daniels, they can hang in the game. And Daniels, rookie or not, is showing all the earmarks of a quarterback who gets better at the game’s biggest moments. That’s enough for Washington fans to have realistic hope for Saturday night.

With that said though, I still think Detroit moves the ball well to lose this one at home. The loss of Zeitler may cause some bog-downs in the red zone, but not enough to stop the Lions’ magical season.

Pick: Detroit 30-24

SUNDAY

LA Rams – Philadelphia (-6, 43.5) (3 PM ET, NBC)
A battle between a pretty good Ram offensive line and a solid Eagle defensive front will go a long way towards shaping this game. If Los Angeles can run the ball with Kyren Williams and keep some pressure off Matthew Stafford, that opens up Sean McVay’s play calling. Los Angeles could control the ball, create some nervous energy in the building and pull an upset.

Where Philadelphia could make this an easy night is by exploiting a suspect L.A. secondary. On paper, their own offensive line should have a substantial edge on a Ram front seven that went wild on Monday night against Minnesota. Presuming that was a one-off event against a team with a reputation for playoff meltdowns, Philly should give Jalen Hurts some time to get the ball down the field.

In the Eagles’ first round win over Green Bay, Saquon Barkley rushed for over 100 yards in spite of the Packers’ swarming to the ball well. Los Angeles isn’t as good, and Barkley should have a big game. Even if other aspects of the Philadelphia game plan falter, Barkley should be enough to help them churn out another win on their homefield.

Pick: Philly 21-16

Baltimore (-1.5, 51.5) – Buffalo (6:30 PM ET, CBS)
Even in the cold of Buffalo, a high-scoring game is expected when you look at that Over/Under. Clearly, the presence of the two leading MVP candidates, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson is driving the market. I’m sure that’s the matchup that got this game the prime TV real estate of early Sunday evening. But when you look at each team overall, the Ravens are clearly better. What’s more, the Bills have lost at home in this round each of the past two years, so it’s not like Buffalo has been an impossible place to win in January.

Where the Bills might find some hope is that it doesn’t look like Baltimore wideout Zay Flowers is going to play, at least as of this writing on Friday morning. In that event, maybe Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott can dial up a game plan where he packs his defense, including the secondary, more to the inside and takes away big plays. Of course, that has its own risk. Come too far inside, and Lamar can get outside with his legs. Stretch your defense to contain him and expect Derrick Henry to come barreling up the middle. Baltimore also uses two tight ends, Mark Andrews and Isiah Lively, in the passing game.

I thought Buffalo’s flaws would bite them in the wild-card round against Denver. That didn’t happen, so the Bills deserve respect. But short of Allen playing the game of his life with Lamar simultaneously blowing opportunities, I just don’t see a path for Buffalo.

Pick: Baltimore 28-17

We’ll be back here on Monday, to recap these four games and then look ahead to that night’s national championship game between Notre Dame and Ohio State.