NFL Notebook: Conference Championship Preview

A week of championship football that began with Ohio State and Notre Dame playing for the college title will conclude with the NFL settling the two spots in the Super Bowl. Here’s our preview of Championship Sunday’s doubleheader.

NFC Championship: Washington – Philadelphia (3 PM ET, Fox)
For the third consecutive week, the Eagles come into a playoff game as a reasonably comfortable home favorite, this time at (-6). And for the third consecutive week, whether Philly can really open this game up and win going away will depend on their ability to get the ball down the field against a vulnerable secondary.

Jalen Hurts averaged 8.0 yards-per-attempt during the regular season, a strong number. He hasn’t been the same against Green Bay or the L.A. Rams in the playoffs, being held under seven yards per throw each game. If the Eagles can’t get big plays against a spotty Commander secondary, then this NFC Championship Game will be close in the fourth quarter, just as the wins over the Packers and Rams were.

Of course, the operative word in the above paragraph is “wins.” Philadelphia hasn’t looked overwhelming, but they keep advancing and that’s at least in part because Hurts isn’t making big plays in a negative way either. He takes care of the football and it’s the reason he’s still playing, while Jared Goff and Lamar Jackson are at home.

The other—and more significant reason—that the Eagles keep advancing is the play of Saquon Barkley. The great running back has gone off, piling up 324 yards in the first two rounds. The Commanders have shown no ability to stop the run, either during the regular season or even in their upset win over Detroit last week. The Lion running game gashed Washington’s defense and there’s no reason to expect any different in Philadelphia—especially with key Commander defenders Frankie Luvu and Bobby Wagner likely playing hurt. 

Thus, simply playing mistake-free and running the ball, which the Eagles have established they can do, puts them in the game and probably on pace to win. But without big plays in the passing game, it will be close. If that happens, does Jayden Daniels have more magic left in him?

A big part of this will come down to Washington’s ability to protect their rookie quarterback. Philadelphia’s defensive front has a demonstrable edge over the Washington offensive line. Daniels is mobile, good running the ball and throwing on the run. But to pull the upset, he will need some opportunities to settle into the pocket.

When you look at both teams’ lineups, this is a mismatch in favor of Philadelphia. While there is a path for Washington to win—don’t give up big plays, keep it close and count on Daniels to pull another rabbit out of his hat—it’s a narrow path. Although admittedly one that seems to have heightened possiblities when a team gets on a run like the Commanders are on.

Washington’s upset scenario can come into play if scoring is a little lower—maybe a 21-17 type of upset. But this is Hurts’ third game back from the concussion protocol and he’s getting enough chances to find his form. I’ll put my chips on Philadelphia opening things up and winning 34-21.

AFC Championship Game: Buffalo – Kansas City (6:30 PM ET, CBS)
Both teams have punched above their weight this year—that is, their won-loss records vastly exceed what you would expect to see when breaking their lineups down point-by-point. The ability of both quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, to improvise is undoubtedly the prime reason. Each team is exceptionally well-coached.

There’s no reason not to assume a close game that simply comes down to which quarterback comes up with a few big plays. That’s how it was in the regular season meeting won by Buffalo. It’s how it was in last year’s playoff game won by Kansas City. Both teams are good enough defensively that we probably can’t reduce it all to a simple question of “who gets the ball last”, like in their 2021 Divisional Round classic. But barring something completely out of character, this should be a tense game in the fourth quarter.

Each team has an edge they can work offensively. The Bills have a better chance of getting the running game going. James Cook has run with exceptional toughness against good run defenses from Denver and Baltimore. Cook gets yardage after contact, something he’ll have to do against an excellent K.C. front seven, led tackle Chris Jones clogging up the middle. Ideally, Buffalo would like to see Cook work the interior well enough to pull the Chiefs inside and allow Allen to make something happen on the perimeter. But even if Cook just does well enough to move the chains and keep Mahomes on the sidelines, that’s a win for Buffalo.

Kansas City’s edge comes with working Travis Kelce against what is a highly suspect group of linebackers and safeties for the Bills. This was the same advantage the Chiefs had last week against Houston and Kelce had a big day. The great tight end is getting up their age-wise, and this hasn’t been a vintage year statistically. But the opportunity for a big game is there waiting for him.

Buffalo is respected by the oddsmakers—only a (+1.5) road underdog, meaning the betting markets likely see the Bills as the better team on a neutral field. The problem is that this game won’t actually be played on a neutral field, and there are several factors working in Kansas City’s favor. They grade out as a better team in the bread-and-butter areas of tackling and covering—a tight game can easily be decided by what defenders fail to wrap up on a key third down play.

The Bils are also dealing with the most significant injury uncertainty either side is facing. Christian Benford, their best player in an otherwise spotty secondary, is in the concussion protocol. If he doesn’t get cleared, or is any way off his game, a generally pedestrian group of Chiefs’ receivers might have opportunities that wouldn’t otherwise be there.

Ultimately, it comes down to this. If you believe this is going to be a 20-17 type game either way, as I do, is that enough to make you go against Patrick Mahomes in his own house? One day, this run by the Chiefs will end and it could be on Sunday night. But I won’t be the one to predict it.

Enjoy the football feast! We’ll be back Monday to recap both games.