NFL Notebook: Playoff Overview
The NFL playoffs kick off on Saturday. Here’s how the bracket is set up:
AFC
(1)Kansas City – BYE
(4)Houston – (5)LA Chargers
(3)Baltimore – (6)Pittsburgh
(2)Buffalo – (7)Denver
NFC
(1)Detroit- BYE
(4)LA Rams – (5)Minnesota
(3)Tampa Bay – (6)Washington
(2)Philadelphia – (7)Green Bay
The bracket is not fixed, meaning that low plays high in the second round.
This post is meant to serve as a general overview of the entire postseason and will assess each team’s chances of getting the 3-4 wins necessary to win the Super Bowl on February 9 in New Orleans.
Data is drawn from the standard stats over at Pro Football Reference, and from the individual and unit grades put out by Pro Football Focus.
Teams are segmented into five groups based on their betting odds to win the Super Bowl posted at Vegas Insider as of 1/7/25. What’s here will serve as a baseline for the individual previews that will eventually come for all remaining 13 games.
THE FAVORITES
Detroit (+275)
What I Like: The Lions have scored more points than anyone in the league and the reasons start up front. The left side of the line, with guard Kevin Zeitler and tackle Penei Sewell is elite. So is center Frank Ragnow. Right tackle Taylor Decker is solid in his own right. There’s plenty of protection for Jared Goff, a reason for his dazzling 8.6 yards-per-attempt. There’s plenty of room to run for Jahmyr Gibbs. The defense is a top-tier unit, ranking seventh in points allowed. The safeties, Kerby Joseph–my pick for Defensive Player of the Year–and Brian Branch lead the way, and Jack Campbell is a steadying force at middle linebacker.
What I Don’t: Let’s start with the defensive line. This is a vulnerable unit, thanks primarily to injuries that have taken their toll throughout the year. Teams can run the ball on Detroit and the pass rush has been a major problem. The corners are extremely vulnerable. Offensively, if I had to find fault with an otherwise excellent unit, I guess I’d say that the passing game can be overly dependent on wide receiver Amron St. Brown. Ultimately though, the question that really overshadows the Lions is this—will Dan Campbell’s go-for-broke attitude on fourth down blow up in his face at the worst possible time?
Kansas City (+350)
What I Like: The Chiefs pedigree as a team who “knows how to win” has been on display throughout the season. They have one of the league’s best defenses, with great players at each level—Chris Jones up front, Leo Chenal at linebacker and Trent McDuffie on the corner. They tackle well and they cover well. The offensive line is strong across the interior. Even without explosiveness, this kind of bread-and-butter stability keeps putting Patrick Mahomes in position to win games. And #15 keeps doing his thing.
What I Don’t: The aforementioned lack of explosiveness is a major problem. Mahomes’ overall numbers are pedestrian, with 6.8 yards-per-attempt being a figure one would normally attribute to a game manager. Travis Kelce’s yards-per-catch is under 10. No one in the receiving corps stands out. One reason for this is that offensive line, strong as they may be on the interior, is weak on the edge and that can be a big problem in pass protection. Defensively, those stars have to carry a big load, because there are serious weak points throughout the lineup.
SOLID CHALLENGERS
Buffalo (6-1)
What I Like: Josh Allen took a huge step forward this year. Always a good downfield passer and runner, Allen began cleaning up the mistakes and he posted an efficient interception rate of 1.2 percent. Nor did they come at the expense of production, as he continued to generate a solid 7.7 yards-per-attempt. The Buffalo running game gets good work from James Cook, who rolled up over 1,000 yards at almost five a pop. The Bills’ offense trailed only the Lions for points scored this year. What’s more Buffalo, defeated both Detroit and Kansas City. The defense, while not great, still ranks a respectable 11th, has a top cover corner in Christian Benford, and a pretty good pass rusher in Gregory Rousseau. If 35-year-old Von Miller can wake up the echoes in the playoffs, so much the better.
What I Don’t: For a team that won 13 games, Buffalo has a lot of holes. While covering up those holes can be a part of Allen’s MVP resume, they also present a significant problem for the playoffs. The offensive line is mediocre. The receiving corps is one-dimensional, with a top-heavy focus on Khalil Shakir. The linebackers are simply awful, and every secondary starter besides Benford is a liability. Getting the defense to still rank 11th is one of Sean McDermott’s great coaching achievements, but flaws get exposed in the playoffs.
Baltimore (6-1)
What I Like: Just about everything. Lamar Jackson’s season has been spectacular. His 8.8 yards-per-attempt is the NFL’s best and hasn’t come at the expense of efficiency—a solid 67 percent completion rate and a brilliant 41-4 TD/INT ratio with just a 0.8 percent interception rate. His weapons are multi-pronged, from Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman at receiver, to Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely at tight end. Derrick Henry continues to be one of the league’s best backs, clearing 1,900 yards at almost six a pop. The offensive line is steady. The secondary is outstanding, led by Kyle Hamilton and Ar’Darius Washington at the safety spot. The Ravens rush the passer with Kyle Van Noy and Odafe Oweh. Baltimore is well-coached and does almost everything well. And they’re hot.
What I Don’t: The Ravens do almost everything well. The special teams are a major issue, with Pro Football Focus ranking the unit collectively as one of the NFL’s worst. Justin Tucker’s struggles this year are the focal point, but that grade covers all facets of this critical third rail in the NFL. With Baltimore potentially needing to win two road games in the AFC playoffs, special teams breakdowns can’t be tolerated. The other issue is this—for as great as Lamar is, he has yet to have a signature performance in the playoffs. His body of work is now big enough that this can’t be dismissed. Is he the black Peyton Manning—the great regular season QB, destined to play second fiddle to Mahomes, who would be this generation’s Tom Brady? Or can Lamar stand and deliver?
Philadelphia (7-1)
What I Like: Almost everything. Jalen Hurts is high-percentage, steers clear of mistakes, still averages a healthy 8.0 yards-per-attempt and is a threat to run. Saquon Barkley is a fantastic running back. The receiving corps has a bona fide deep threat in A.J. Brown and reliable alternate targets in DeVonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert. The Eagles are really good in the trenches on both sides of the ball, linebacker Zack Braun grades out as the top middle/inside LB in the league and there are no real weaknesses in the secondary. What else is there?
What I Don’t: What else besides a healthy quarterback that is. The status of Hurts is the biggest unknown in this entire postseason, and probably the reason the Eagles aren’t slotted with the Chiefs and Lions as favorites. Will Hurts play? If he does, how healthy will he be after missing several weeks with a concussion? Beyond this all-consuming issue are a couple of problems that are hidden right now but could easily blow up—the Eagles are a mediocre tackling team and across the board on special teams.
DARK HORSES
Minnesota (16-1)
What I Like: I love the playmaking capacity. Between Justin Jefferson at receiver, and the pass rushing duo of Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard coming off the edge, the Vikings have major impact players on both sides of the ball. Sam Darnold’s strength is his ability to throw deep, further accentuating the big-play opportunities. The offensive line, while not having any individual standouts, grades out strong as a unit for both pass protection and run blocking. Aaron Jones is a steady running back. And while Harrison Smith’s best days at strong safety are behind him, he’s the kind of proud veteran that could wake up a few echoes in a big playoff game.
What I Don’t: Darnold’s propensity to make ill-timed mistakes looms over this team. His 2.2 interception percentage by itself isn’t terrible (though neither is it great). It’s the judgement in specific situations. In both games against Green Bay, the Vikings nearly let big leads get away because Darnold threw a sloppy pick when his team was still multiple scores ahead. Related to the issue of managing leads, the secondary is a significant weak spot, and the interior of the defensive line is soft. Opponents may be able to control clock working the inside running game and converting third downs against a secondary that can’t afford to take too many risks.
Green Bay (18-1)
What I Like: Green Bay’s pass protection grades out near the top of the league and Jordan Love has a big arm, as reflected in his 8.0 yards-per-attempt. Even with the loss of Christian Watson, the Packer receiving corps is balanced, with multiple targets regularly seeing the ball. Josh Jacobs is a tough runner, as good as anyone in the NFL without the last name of Henry or Barkley. Emanuel Wilson is as good a change-of-pace runner as any playoff contender has. In other words, you can’t focus on any one facet of the Packer offense. The defense actually ranks higher—sixth in the league for points allowed, while the offense is eighth in points scored. The Green Bay D has a playmaker in Xavier McKinney roaming at safety, the key to a pretty decent secondary. Edgerrin Cooper is an elite linebacker.
What I Don’t: The defensive line is soft. While Rashan Gary is a nice pass-rusher, the unit overall is vulnerable. The offensive line, as good as they are in pass protection as a unit, grades out poorly for the run. Jacobs covers some of that up with his resilience after contact, but every game from here and out will be against the league’s top defenses. Moreover, Zach Tom is the only individual offensive lineman to get noteworthy grades. While Love brings a “wow” factor on some of his throws on the run, he can also bring a palm-smacks-forehead factor with a comparatively low 63 percent completion rate and a too-high 2.6 percent interception rate that includes some positively head-scratching decisions.
LONGSHOTS
Tampa Bay (30-1)
What I Like: Baker Mayfield’s toughness, accuracy, and arm. He’s cleared the 70 percent threshold for completions and is still close to eight per throw. He makes tough throws in tough spots and is becoming a clutch quarterback you don’t want to deal with in the playoffs. He has a big-time target in Mike Evans, a reliable tight end in Cade Otton and is well-protected on the perimeter of the pocket. Tampa Bay also has a running game with the tandem of Bucky Irving and Rachaad White. Irving, in particular, is gaining over five yards a carry. Defensively, head coach Todd Bowles can strategize around a couple of good front seven players in Vita Vea and Yaya Diaby.
What I Don’t: Baker Mayfield’s capacity to blow himself up. It’s more than 16 picks or the 2.8 percent interception rate. It’s that Mayfield has shown the capacity to completely melt down in games and let things get away from him. He’s the classic kind of quarterback you don’t want to deal with as a favorite but is tough to have confidence in over four games against the NFL’s best. The line has some soft spots inside, especially rookie center Graham Barton, so you can get to Mayfield with gut pressure. And that defense? I was being nice in giving shoutouts to the good names, but the unit as a whole is filled with mediocrity, has a major weak point in safety Antoine Winfield and ranks a pedestrian 16th in the league for points allowed. Only Bowles’ coaching keep the Tampa defense average.
LA Chargers (35-1)
What I Like: How about we start with the defense that gave up fewer points than anyone in the league. The Charger defense keeps them in every game, including their regular season trip to Kansas City, which would be a barometer for measuring the ability compete with the league’s best. Khalil Mack continues to be an elite edge rusher, both corners are good, and they include a playmaker in Tarheeb Still. Derwin James is outstanding at safety. Quarterback Justin Herbert supports this defense by playing mistake-free—only three interceptions all year, and Ladd McConkey is coming on as a young wide receiver. With J.K. Dobbins healthy again, the Chargers have a running game.
What I Don’t: While a healthy Dobbins is a big plus, the offensive line, with significant problems on its interior, grades out in the lower third of the league for run blocking. Herbert’s ability to stay mistake-free could be sorely tested if he doesn’t get running game support and ends up playing from behind on the road—where the Chargers will likely be as long as they’re alive.
LA Rams (35-1)
What I Like: The Rams closed with a flourish, winning five of their last six. That includes knocking off Buffalo. They have a head coach and quarterback who have won the Super Bowl. They have a well-balanced group of receivers that includes another championship player in Cooper Kupp. An offensive line that is decent paves the way for Kyren Williams, who nearly reached the 1,300-yard threshold. A team that’s well-coached with championship players at key spots isn’t to be easily dismissed.
What I Don’t: The defense is 17th in the league in points allowed, the worst of any team that made the field. There are no notable individual standouts that you can look for to change a game. They don’t cover well, and they don’t tackle well. And while the special teams aren’t bad, they aren’t the kind of unit that shows signs of being that hidden factor that helps spring an upset.
Washington (35-1)
What I Like: Has any quarterback in the league carried his team more than Jayden Daniels? It’s more than just the 69 percentcompletion rate, the respectable 7.4 yards-per-attempt, and the sharp 1.9 percent interception rate. It’s also the nearly 900 rushing yards. And even more than that, it’s the clutch play. The Commanders also have a good running back in Brian Robinson and a solid receiver in Terry Laurin. Center Tyler Biadasz is a stabilizing force on the offensive line. The defense has good pass rushers in Dante Fowler and Frankie Luvu, and veteran middle linebacker Bobby Wagner is still as good as it gets—and provides a championship pedigree to a young team from his Legion of Boom days.
What I Don’t: The fact we highlighted Daniels by saying he “carried his team” indicates the ship has a lot of leaking holes. The defense as a whole as subpar, ranking 18th in the league and the secondary is a particularly notable problem. Calling Biadasz a “stabilizing force” on the offensive front is a nice way of saying the other four spots are a mess. Washington has arrived well ahead of schedule, but that also means the clock is getting ready to run out. In summation, all the good things you say about the Commanders also point to their weaknesses.
NO SHOTS
Denver (80-1)
What I Like: The Broncos are a tough and physical team on both sides of the ball, and that starts with the defense. They can get after the quarterback with a trio of pass rushers in Nik Bonitto, Jonathan Cooper, and John Franklin-Meyers. With the league’s top cover corner, Patrick Surtain, and an elite safety in Brandon Jones, coordinator Vance Joseph can be comfortable turning the pass rush loose. That formula has produced the third-stingiest D in the league. Offensively, the line is steady across, highlighted by guard Quinn Meinerz. That physicality and ability to control the line of scrimmage has given rookie quarterback Bo Nix the ability to gain steam throughout the season.
What I Don’t: In spite of the offensive line’s quality, no one in the running game has really stopped up. While Javonte Williams has been valuable to Nix as a pass catcher, he’s also under four yards per carry. Jaleel McLaughlin has a higher YPC, but is still only at 496 yards on the year. To win road games in the playoffs—particularly in cold locales like Buffalo and Kansas City—you better be able to run the football. That’s true no matter who your quarterback is, and certainly if said QB is a rookie.
Houston (100-1)
What I Like: The Texans hopes start with a couple of high-quality edge rushers in Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. Houston also gets steady play from the corners, and a defense that can pressure the quarterback and cover on the outside can cause problems for any offense. With their own offensive unit, Joe Mixon has had a solid year running the ball. When C.J. Stroud gets time, he uses all his weapons well, from Nico Collins down the field to tight end Dalton Schultz underneath. Even with the loss of Tank Dell, Stroud can still bring Stefon Diggs into the receiving equation.
What I Don’t: The qualifier for Stroud, “when he gets time” is significant. The offensive line, even with a pretty decent left tackle in Laremy Tunsil, is a problem area. Defensively, play at the safety position is an issue. The biggest problem, however, is that Houston grades out terribly for tackling and subpar on special teams. These are areas you’d especially like to see an underdog excel in if they’re going to hang in and spring an upset. Instead, they could be the areas that undoes an otherwise noble effort from the team’s stars.
Pittsburgh (100-1)
What I Like: Star power can stand out even more in postseason play, and the Steeler defense is loaded with it. Within the front seven, T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, and Cameron Heyward are great players, all capable of disrupting an offense and changing a game in the blink of an eye. Russell Wilson is a tough, veteran quarterback whose 1.5 percent interception rate is low. He has a playmaker in George Pickens and a respectable two-headed running attack with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. Pat Freiermuth is the kind of tight end who can move the chains in an important spot. Pittsburgh’s defense tackles well, they have good special teams, and in a close playoff game, is there any kicker besides Chris Boswell you’d rather have?
What I Don’t: The four-game losing streak to end the year is what dropped the Steelers into this lowest category, but perhaps the bigger issue is that the skid wasn’t necessarily that surprising. Were you expecting them to win in Philly or Baltimore? Or at home against Kansas City? Were you stunned by a close home loss to surging Cincinnati? The Steelers are a good team, but not a great one. A review of the personnel does suggest as much. The cornerback spots are a mess. The offensive line, while having a solid center in Zach Frazier and a respectable left side, is extremely vulnerable on the right flank. The star power mentioned at the top makes Pittsburgh a threat in any individual game, but the overall flaws work strongly against winning four in a row.
Here’s the schedule for the opening round:
Saturday, January 11
LA Chargers – Houston (4:30 PM ET, CBS)
Pittsburgh – Baltimore (8 PM ET, Amazon Prime)
Sunday, January 12
Denver – Buffalo (1 PM ET, CBS)
Green Bay – Philadelphia (4:30 PM ET, Fox)
Washington – Tampa Bay (8 PM ET, NBC)
Monday, January 13
Minnesota – LA Rams (8 PM ET, ABC/ESPN)
We’ll be busy in this space for the coming days. We return tomorrow to preview the College Football Playoff semifinals that go Thursday and Friday night and then have recaps of both games on Saturday. Over the course of Friday and Saturday morning, we’ll preview the six first-round NFL games, and on Tuesday will recap all six.