NFL Notebook: NFC South Preview

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The NFC South was a dry division in 2023, with the 9-8 records of Tampa Bay and New Orleans leading the way, Atlanta being a disappointment, and Carolina being the league’s worst team. Expectations for 2024 aren’t all that different. Our snapshot look at each division continues with the NFC South:

Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers won this division last year and then knocked off Philadelphia in the playoffs. Tampa did it on the strength of the league’s seventh-best defense. The Bucs’ 3-4 scheme relies on nose tackle Vita Vea to tie up blockers, freeing up a pretty good linebacking corps, led by K.J. Britt and Lavonte David to make plays. In the secondary, Antoine Winfield graded out as the best free safety in the NFL. Moreover, this side of the football is the strength of head coach Todd Bowles. There’s no reason to think the Tampa defense won’t be stingy again.

While the offense only ranked 20^th, Baker Mayfield had a bit of a redemptive year, making the Pro Bowl. Mike Evans continues to be one of the league’s best receivers, averaging over 15 yards per catch. Chris Godwin remains a talented slot receiver, and rookie Jalen McMillan was added to give Mayfield another threat. The running game has to get better, and for that to happen the interior of the line has to show substantial improvement. The Bucs drafted rookie center Graham Barton. His development won’t be a big media story, but it might quietly be a big factor in the NFC South race.

New Orleans
The Saints were a hard-luck team last year. They ranked ninth in the league in points scored, and eighth in points allowed, yet only saw that translate to 9-8. In Week 3, starting quarterback Derek Carr missed the second half of a game in Green Bay. The Saints blew a 17-0 lead. Carr returned the next week, but that one missed half was the difference in the race for the final playoff spot.

When you look at New Orleans’ offense this year, it’s kind of “Meh.” Not a lot jumps out at you, good or bad. If they struggle, it will be because a pedestrian line that includes rookie left tackle Taliese Fuaga didn’t come together. If they succeed, we can probably assume that line is giving Carr enough time to stretch the field to Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Defensively, the Saints have assets that include Cameron Jordan and Chase Young on the edges, Demario Davis at linebacker and veteran free safety Tyrann Mathieu. The New Orleans D will be good enough to compete.

Atlanta
The failure of quarterback Desmond Ridder to develop led to an otherwise talented roster underperforming. The Falcons made a coaching change and brought in Raheem Morris. And they made big changes at quarterback. Atlanta signed Kirk Cousins on the free agent market, and then raised more than a few eyebrows when they drafted Michael Penix Jr. in the first round. Even the third-stringer, Taylor Heinicke, has starting experience from his time in Washington. It seems like overkill, but I guess you can’t blame the Falcons for being traumatized over last year.

Atlanta looks good most everywhere else. The offensive line is stable, Bijan Robinson is a versatile running back, there are no obvious weak points on defense, and that D includes elite players in tackle David Onyemata and free safety Jesse Baker. Outside linebacker, Matthew Judon, signed from New England, provides a pass rush. The wide receivers are a question mark, but a healthy Cousins should be able to lift the passing game.

Carolina
Dave Canales is the new head coach. He was previously the offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay. While producing the league’s 20^th-best offense seems like an odd way to get a promotion, the improvement Mayfield showed may have prompted Carolina to hope Canales can do the same for Bryce Young. With numbers of a 60 percent completion rate at 5.5 yards-per-attempt, Young’s production was hideous last year. That said, he’s still just a kid and the supporting cast around him wasn’t exactly stellar.

Carolina’s line is stable at the tackle positions, hopefully securing the pocket for Young. The front office went and signed Diontae Johnson from Pittsburgh, and then drafted Xavier Legette. And while Adam Thielen isn’t what he was during his prime in Minnesota, the 33-year-old receiver, could be effective if he can be a third target, rather than the primary, as he was last year. The Panther defense is a unit that could really surprise. Derrick Brown is one of the league’s best defensive ends, Jadeveon Clowney is at outside linebacker, and Jayce Horn is a top corner. Moreover, there’s no area that is an obvious weak point. If the offense doesn’t turn the ball over, the Panther D could win some games.

Preliminary Overview
I was surprised to see how down the betting markets are on Tampa Bay and New Orleans—both have Over/Unders of just 6.5. I’m not saying I think either one is Super Bowl-caliber, but I’m not sure why both are projected to have such drop-offs. I do understand why Atlanta is a comfortable (-145) favorite to win this division, although I’m not as confident in the Morris hiring as the market seems to be. My gut reaction is to give the Saints a narrow edge, the Bucs to be basically what they were a year ago, the Falcons to be an X-factor, and the Panthers to be improved. Final picks will be made just before the season starts, so that’s subject to change. One thing not subject to change is that I think the NFC South as a whole is a better than the experts think.