NFL Notebook: NFC North Preview

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The Detroit Lions had a breakthrough year, won this division a year ago and came oh-so-close to the franchise’s first Super Bowl. The Green Bay Packers surged down the stretch and are brimming with optimism. The Minnesota Vikings, after an injury-riddled 2023, are retooling. And the Chicago Bears have the #1 overall draft pick in quarterback Caleb Williams. Here’s our snapshot look at the NFC North:

Detroit
The NFL’s fifth-best offense from last year is anchored by a line that is solid all the way across, with right tackle Penei Sewell being the one of the league’s best. Detroit can come at with you a two-pronged rushing attack of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Gibbs is also a pass-catching threat out of the backfield, joining tight end Sam LaPorta and receiver All-Pro Amon-Ra St. Brown as the prime targets for Jared Goff. Areas for growth seem limited—it would be nice to see Jared Goff cut back on his mistakes, but at this stage in his career, it would seem we have to just take the veteran QB for who he is—pretty good, with flaws. And I’m not sure what second or third receivers are going to break out. Detroit will have to keep pounding people on the ground.

Defensively, the Lions only ranked 23^rd, and it was a defensive meltdown that cost them the NFC Championship Game in San Francisco last year. Detroit used the draft to invest on this side of the football. Corner Terrion Johnson out of Alabama was the first-round pick. With the secondary being the D’s biggest flaw, Johnson’s development will decide whether the Lions make defensive improvement. Because they’re already good up front, with pass-rushing defensive end Aidan Hutchinson leading the way.

Green Bay
After struggling for much of the first nine games, first-year starting quarterback Jordan Love got it rolling in the second half, as the Packers went 6-2 in the second half, then blew out Dallas to open the playoffs. Whether or not that development continues into Year 2 is the foremost question surrounding the Packers. The front office just gave him the richest contract in NFL history before he’s even made a Pro Bowl, which seems a little over the top. But it does underscore the optimism that’s brewing in Lambeau Field. That optimism has been further fueled by signing running back Josh Jacobs, who won the rushing title in 2022 with the Raiders.

Green Bay will be relying on a group of young receivers to develop, as they also need their first-round pick, right guard Jordan Moses to make an immediate impact. The line was an issue last year. And the defense, even though they ranked 10^th overall and were the biggest reason for the playoff trip, only has one really notable player—strong safety Xavier McKinney. Defensive coordinator Joe Barry was the scapegoat, although I’m not sure why. That said, the Packers persuaded Jeff Hafley to give up the Boston College head coaching job to become their new DC. Hafley produced good defenses at the collegiate level and whether that translates to the NFL is likely the ultimate deciding factor in this team’s 2024 success.

Minnesota
The injuries the Vikings suffered to the great wide receiver Justin Jefferson, and tight end T.J. Hockenson last year were bad enough. Then, Kirk Cousins went down, and the team never found another quarterback even remotely competent at the NFL level. It all served to ruin what was otherwise a promising season. Jefferson and Hockenson are healthy again, but Cousins left via free agency. An offense that has a couple of pretty good tackles in Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neil, has just signed a tough runner in Aaron Jones, and has their playmakers healthy, is again stuck in QB purgatory. They’ll give Sam Darnold the job, but he’s just keeping the seat warm until first-round pick J.J. McCarthy—fresh off winning the national championship at Michigan—is ready.

Minnesota’s defense is decent, but not good enough to keep pace if the offense flounders. The Vikes have a good linebacking corps, led by Andrew Van Ginkel on the outside. But the great Harrison Smith, likely headed for the Hall of Fame, is starting to slow down at strong safety, and there are no real playmakers in either the secondary or up front. While I generally hate the “it’s all about the quarterback” mindset, there are situations where it really does apply. This year’ s Viking team is a good example. Even competent QB play could put them in the playoffs. But if McCarthy can’t ramp up quickly and Darnold is who we think he is, it’s tough to see more than 6-7 wins.

Chicago
The Bears completely overhauled their skill positions in the offseason. The drafting of Williams and saying goodbye to Justin Fields was the signature move. But they also went out and signed a 1,000-yard rusher in D’Andre Swift from Philadelphia. The Bears helped themselves to a 1,200-yard receiver in the Chargers’ Keenan Allen. They used the second of their first-round picks on wide receiver Rome Odunze. This is in addition to a receiving corps that already had a really good target in D.J. Moore and a respectable tight end in Cole Kmet.

So, the Fantasy positions have been upgraded. Is the meat-and-potatoes of the lineup good enough to lift the Bears from 7-10 and put them in the postseason? The offensive line is tough to get a read on. Ryan Bates is solid at center, but this unit could go either way. The defense has a foundation piece in one of the game’s best corners, Jaylon Johnson. But the rest of the starters could go either way. That’s in addition to the major question of how fast Williams will be ready. There’s reason for some hope with a franchise that doesn’t often provide that, but a huge number of question marks.

Preliminary Conclusions
The betting markets are high on the Bears. While they project Chicago third, both in Over/Under for wins and betting odds to win the division, it’s a close third, right behind Detroit and Green Bay. If the market is right, only Minnesota can be ruled out.

I think this division is much more clear-cut—it’s a Lions/Packers race. And if Detroit is still reeling from that NFC Championship Game collapse and the subsequent comments by head coach Dan Campbell that essentially said chances like that probably weren’t coming around again, then Green Bay is going to coast in, with the only question being whether that’s as a viable Super Bowl contender or just a process-of-elimination division champ.