NFL Notebook: NFC East Preview

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The NFC East was clearly split into two categories last year—legitimate contenders in the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles, and obvious also-rans in the New York Giants and Washington Commanders. The same landscape is anticipated this year. Here’s a snapshot look at all four teams:

Dallas
The Cowboys have star power. Dak Prescott had the best year of his career in 2023, and Cee Dee Lamb is a big-play All-Pro wide receiver. On the defensive side of the football, DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons are a dynamic pass-rushing duo on the edges. Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland are elite corners. Last season, Dallas scored the most points in the NFL and the defense was top-5 in points allowed.

There are holes to fill. Rookie left tackle Tyler Guyton, a first-round pick, will have to prove himself. The other offensive tackle spot, occupied by Terrence Steele is a potential problem. The interior of the defensive line could be an issue. And with the loss of running back Tony Pollard, Dallas will be relying on 28-year-old Ezekiel Elliot to revive his career in the place where he won two rushing titles. But looking at this only from the perspective of talent and regular season performance, there are no serious problems with the Cowboys.

Philadelphia
Philly had no problem scoring points last year, and there’s no reason to expect any different this year. Jalen Hurts is reliable at quarterback. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith make for a potent combo at wide receiver. Dallas Goedert is a good option at tight end. And I like the signing of Saquon Barkley at running back. While Barkley’s production slipped last year with the Giants, that likely had more to do with the team he was playing on. Barkley’s slippery running and pass catching will be a perfect fit for an offense that has two outstanding tackles up front, in Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata. It’s this unit that the Birds soaring for about the first three quarters of the 2023 season.

But it’s the defense, shaky all year long, that was the cause of a hard collapse down the stretch. There’s a new coordinator in Vic Fangio. He has some good pieces to work with—notably tackle Jalen Carter and outside linebacker Bryce Huff. While the secondary played poorly as a unit last year, the individual parts are at least workable. Philadelphia ranked 30^th in the league in points allowed in ’23. Even just getting to mediocrity can make a big difference this year.

NY Giants
Dexter Lawrence is an excellent nose tackle. The Clemson product is the perfect anchor in the middle of the 3-4 defense. While losing Barkley is a blow, I like the signing of Devin Singletary, a tough physical runner. The problem for New York is that this is about the sum of the good things that can be said about their lineup.

The quarterback situation is a mess. Danny Jones was hurt much of last year and ineffective when he did play. The offensive line has at least two spots—center and right tackle—that are gaping holes. There is no real elite talent anywhere outside of Lawrence. The only mystery about the Giants’ 6-11 year in 2023 is how they managed to win six. And I’m still trying to figure how they maneuvered their way into the playoffs the year before. That looked like an outlier at the time, and even more so now.

Washington
Dan Quinn is the new head coach in the nation’s capital. I like this hire—he had success as the boss in Atlanta, getting the Falcons to a Super Bowl, and he’s an excellent defensive mind. While the quality of the secondary will have to be upgraded before Quinn can really play the aggressive style he likes, Quinn does have some good linebackers to work with and a defensive line that should be better than it is. The Commanders had the league’s worst scoring defense a year ago and simply improving that—which I expect Quinn to do—is an easy enough way to improve on their 4-13 record.

The skill positions are where change is happening. Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels is expected to play right away. Austin Ekeler was brought in from the Chargers to lead the running game. While the offensive line isn’t a strength, there are no glaring weaknesses either. Washington was 25^th in the league a year ago, and—depending on how quickly Daniels can progress—there’s reason to hope for improvement.

Preliminary Conclusion
While I agree with the betting market’s assessment that the two-tiered nature of the NFC East will continue this year, I think we can break it down even further. Dallas is better than Philadelphia. Washington is better than New York. I see this is 1-2, followed by a big dropoff, and then 3-4.

The bigger question, especially at the top, is psychological. How do the Cowboys respond to being humiliated in the playoffs by Green Bay in the first round—a disappointment that confirmed what many believe—that Dallas is simply a regular season team? How do the Eagles respond by capping off their late collapse with a no less humiliating playoff performance at Tampa Bay? I’m making my assessments strictly on talent for now, but any psychiatrist that can figure out where the Cowboys and Eagles heads are at is the prognosticator to listen to.