NBA Playoffs: 2nd Round Wraps

This post will be home to the wrap-up on each second-round series:

Boston (1) beats Cleveland (4) 4-1
We already did a summation of each series at the four-game mark, so the Celtics-Cavs matchup didn’t really alter after that. The two key takeaways from the Boston perspective were simple—contrary to media myth, the Celtics are more than just a “boom or bust” team from three-point range. The ultimate decisive factor in this series is that they enjoyed a commanding rebounding advantage. The per-game margin was 44-35. Rebounds open up the three-ball on kick-back. Even more than that is what they indicate—aggression and effort.

For Boston, it was apparent after Game 2’s loss that Jayson Tatum decided to get aggressive. He began taking the ball to the hole consistently, and at the game’ s key points. Game 5 was his first good outside shooting game the entire postseason, but his offensive aggression was a big turning point in this series.

Of course, the Celtics again dealt with a wounded opponent. Their first-round win over Miami came without Jimmy Butler. In this series, Donovan Mitchell was lost after three games. Any hope the Cavs had of pulling a monster upset in the series was basically shot.

This is still a good year for Cleveland. Last year, they had a good season and made the playoffs. This year, they had another good year, got up to the 4-seed and advanced in the playoffs. Evan Mobley is really impressive at forward. Darius Garland had a rough go of it in this series and only shot 40 percent, but when he can settle in as the running mate to Mitchell, he fits in more naturally. Bright future for the Cavs.

As for Boston, it’s time to wait, rest and see if Kristaps Porzingis can make it back for the conference finals.

Dallas (5) beats Oklahoma City (1) 4-2
The statistical standout from this series is the difference in three-point shooting and rebounding. The Mavs and Thunder were basically even in overall shooting percentage (each rounded off to 45 percent for the six games). But, taking a roughly equal number of three-point shots, Dallas shot 40 percent behind the arc, while Oklahoma City was at 33 percent. And on the boards, the per-game edge was 45-40—a decisive margin for six games.

Furthermore, the gap in offensive rebounding specifically stood out. For the series, the Mavericks collected 73 offensive boards, against just 57 for the Thunder. Which, as noted above in the Celtics-Cavs recap, has a definite connection to three-point shooting percentage. It’s not just about “who’s hot”, it’s about who is getting the cleaner looks and offensive rebounding plays a big role in that.

Thus, as you look for key players and difference-makers in this series,  I would point you not to Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, or Kyrie Irving. Instead, I would highlight the work Dallas got from Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively. Each averaged eight rebounds a game for the series. The two of them combined to get 33 of those valuable offensive boards for the Mavs.

We can also add in the work of P.J. Washington. He played like a star for five games and averaged 18 points/8 rebounds. Even though P.J. didn’t have a notable Game 6, it was perhaps fitting that he was the one who drew the foul and hit the free throws that put away the 117-116 thriller in the closeout.

At the risk of overlooking the stars, Luka stepped up big-time in Games 5 & 6. In the critical Game 5 road win, he set the tone early and finished with a dazzling 31/10/11 line. In the sixth game, he shot 9-for-15, and dropped a 25/10/9 line.

A very bright future is ahead for Oklahoma City. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander never shirked from the moment. He was the only Thunder player who was engaged and ready to play in Game 5, and he delivered a magnificent 36-point effort on 14-for-25 shooting in the last-ditch Game 6 effort. The rest of the Thunder just looked like the very young team that they are at the decisive moment. Nothing wrong or unexpected about that. They’ll be back.

Indiana (6) beats New York (2) 4-3
Was this a case of the Pacers maturing before our very eyes or the Knicks’ run of injuries that started all the way back when they lost Julius Randle during the regular season, finally catching up to them? From here, it looks like both.

Tyrese Haliburton played a terrific series in his point guard battle with Jalen Brunson. Haliburton finished with a statistical average of 21/4/7 for the series and was at his best in the decisive Game 7 when his 26 points led the way for a balanced lineup that he is the facilitator for. Brunson was great—playing a little wounded, he dropped 30ppg and shot a respectable 46 percent for the series. But he finally ran out of gas and was 6-for-17 in Game 7 before leaving with a fracture that would have sidelined him for the rest of the postseason even if the Knicks had won.

With the two great point guards fighting each other reasonably close to a draw, Indiana had an edge in the frontcourt, with the tandem of Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner. They gave the Pacers consistent scoring down low and were both particularly aggressive in Games 6 & 7.

I’m going to look back at a key decision New York head coach Tom Thibodeau made after Game 2. The Knicks had won two great games at Madison Square Garden to get control of the series. But Brunson was banged up a bit. I thought Jalen should have been rested in Game 3. He played and New York nearly stole the road win that would have all but iced the series before it got started. But when the Pacers survived, Brunson had missed a possible rest day. OG Anunoby also got hurt and didn’t return until Game 7. And while the Knicks summoned everything for a dominating Game 5 effort, this series basically belonged to the Pacers down the stretch. Their wins in Games 4, 6 and 7 were not particularly close.

That’s why, while New York has a valid excuse for letting this opportunity get away, it’s also impossible to deny that Indiana really came together. We’ll talk more on their chances for the immediate future in tomorrow’s post, but their long-time future—and that of the Knicks—is looking good.

Minnesota (3) beats Denver (2) 4-3
When you have at least a half-century for sports recollections at your mental fingertips, you can usually find some historical comparison for a series. But I can’t think of anything like what we saw unfold in this Minnesota-Denver series. The road team winning five games is certainly unusual, but not unheard of. A defending champ losing a Game 7 on their home floor is also unusual. But it happens. What is completely striking is that, in a series that didn’t have a ton of singular moments, the shifts in momentum were absolutely wild.

Denver looked overmatched in the first two games at home. Then, Minnesota looked completely unready for prime-time in getting overwhelmed on their home floor, a pattern that continued back to Denver for Game 5. Even when the Nuggets were blown out in Game 6, that still had the feel of the defending champ basically just collecting themselves for one final statement at home. That’s how it continued to feel as Denver rolled to a 20-point lead in Game 7. Anthony Edwards was playing poorly (6-for-24 on the game). It had all the markings of a series where the proud champion asserted themselves and the T-Wolves would accept that they had a nice season and just go back home and try again.

But there was one more momentum shift left. Minnesota not only came back, they completely dominated the second half of Game 7. In a sport where the defining attribute of homecourt is often the impact it has on role players, it was Denver’s supporting cast that disappeared, while Minny’s stepped up. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray were magnificent, combining for 69 points. What are the odds that this, along with Edwards’ poor game, would still result in a Denver loss? That’s what happened though. Everyone else, led by Karl Anthony-Towns (KAT) stepped up, and the Nugget role players faded away. The T-Wolves won by eight.

This same dynamic that defined Game 7 can be seen in the overall series stats. After Jokic and Murray, there just wasn’t enough from everyone else. Edwards, in spite of his rough Game 7, was otherwise brilliant. There are, however, two things that really stand out in the aggregate numbers:

*Murray only shot 40 percent for the series. As good as he was in Game 7, that bad hamstring he brought in probably slowed him in the early games, especially a 3-for-18 performance in Game 2. Losing those home games were, in the end, just as a consequential as losing the last one.

*When you talk about role players and rebounding (Minnesota had a 43-40 edge for the series), it’s worth looking past the big rebounders—KAT and Rudy Gobert and looking at the countless “small” contributions. Everyone from Mike Conley to Naz Reid to Jaden McDaniels was scooping up a few rebounds a game. That all makes a difference. Maybe it’s appropriate that the decisive moment of Game 7 came when Reid did a massive throw-down off an offensive board when the T-Wolves were holding on to a 93-88 lead. That was basically the dagger.

We’re in an age of parity in the NBA. It was 2019 that Toronto ended the Golden State dynasty. The Lakers’ 2020 run in the bubble proved to be an anomaly. The Bucks won the title in 2021 but have had disappointing playoff runs since. The Warriors made their last big run together in ’22 and have faded from relevance. Now, the Nuggets have fallen by the wayside. We’ll have new champions next month and a lot of fresh contenders for next season. It’s an exciting, competitive time for the league.