MLB Notebook: World Series Preview
Baseball’s most historic interleague rivalry renews itself in the World Series for the 12th time, but the first time since 1981. The Los Angeles Dodgers bring MLB”s best record, at 98-64. The New York Yankees, off a 94-68 campaign were the third-best team overall and the 1-seed in the American League. The Fall Classic begins Friday night in L.A. Betting markets see this matchup as fairly even, with the Dodgers a narrow (-122) favorite.
For the first time in this postseason, the Yankees will face a lineup that has more star power. Los Angeles got dominant NLCS performances from Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts. Even if one or both stars comes back to earth now, the Dodgers could simply see if Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez, both of whom slumped against the Mets, could heat up. Freeman, having played on a bad ankle sprain in obvious pain, will surely benefit from the three days off between series.
Juan Soto has been his usual self for the Yankees. Giancarlo Stanton’s power surge has made up for Aaron Judge’s lack of production. I’m leery of Stanton continuing this run, given that all of his hits in the ALCS were home runs. Yes, it was four of them, but that is a sign of a power hitter on the verge of cooling down. That said, I think Judge has gotten progressively better as the playoffs go on. The numbers aren’t showing it yet, but the quality of his at-bats and the contact he’s making is notably better.
Both teams got good production in the LCS round from the undercard on their lineup. Gleyber Torres was clutch for the Yanks in the leadoff spot. If he’s getting on base consistently, Los Angeles can’t pitch around the trifecta of Soto, Judge and Stanton. Although that does bring me to the question of wondering why manager Aaron Boone often insists on throwing Austin Wells or some other mediocre bat in between Judge and Stanton and breaking up that rhythm.
Los Angeles got an NLCS MVP performance from Tommy Edman. Even if Edman doesn’t continue that hot streak, they also got a big home run from Will Smith, another role player that could get hot for a week. Max Muncy could change a game with one swing of the bat and is as likely as Stanton to go on a power surge.
So far, it may seem like I’m leaning to the Dodgers. And if this were only about everyday lineups, Los Angeles would deserve to be a substantial favorite against most anyone. But, unfortunately for the Dodgers, there is this thing called pitching.
Los Angeles pitching has been better than expected so far in the playoffs. There was the dominant string of innings to close out San Diego in the NLCS. They’re getting good work from Yoshiobu Yamomoto. They got a gem of start from Jack Flaherty. But they also gave up 26 runs in six games to the Mets. The lack of depth in the rotation forced manager Dave Roberts to do a “bullpen game” on two different occasions in that series. While L.A. won one of those games—the clincher against the Mets—the pitching performance wasn’t promising in either one.
While Yankee pitching isn’t going to remind anyone of their late 1990s dynasty, or even the years when Ron Guidry and Ed Figueroa were at the top of the rotation in the late 1970s, New York has good balance up and down its staff. Gerrit Cole, after a delayed start to the season and spotty performance throughout, seems to be in postseason form. Cole will get the ball on Friday night, presumably again in Game 5, and potentially be available for an inning or two in a Game 7. Carlos Rodon, Clarke Schmidt, and Luis Gil are at least as reliable for the Yanks as Flaherty is for the Dodgers.
Nor is there any advantage to getting New York’s starter out of the game. While Los Angeles ranked narrowly ahead of New York in bullpen ERA this season (5th in MLB to 7th), it’s also considerably easier to pitch in Dodger Stadium than Yankee Stadium. Furthermore, Boone isn’t going to face the same burden Roberts is, of needing to have his relievers carry an entire game or two.
The Dodger bats are as capable as anyone, but I just don’t trust this pitching staff over a seven-game series. They desperately need big outings from Yamamoto and Flaherty—out of potentially four starts, let’s say they need three of those games to be one where the starter pitches well and deep into the game. If that happens, Roberts’ skillful managing of the bullpen can put L.A. over the top.
But Boone has the easier path. He’s got the best starting pitcher in this series. He’s got the deeper staff. He’s got the marginally better bullpen. And while he doesn’t have as many stars, no team with Soto and Judge can be considered really bereft in that area. All of that is why I’m saying its Yanks in six.