MLB Notebook: Wild-Card Round Recaps

The Wild-Card Round is in the books, capped off by Pete Alonso’s heroics in Milwaukee last night. We have the following:

Detroit beat Houston 2-0
Kansas City beat Baltimore 2-0
San Diego beat Atlanta 2-0
NY Mets beat Milwaukee 2-1

You will note that only one of those teams, the Padres, was playing at home. We now have three years of this wild-card round format under our belt, and two trends are striking:

*Home teams are just 4-8. Even getting the entire series at home doesn’t seem to matter.
*A decisive rubber match is rare—only twice in the 12 matchups since 2022. Oddly, both involved the Mets (including a ’22 loss at home to San Diego).

Here are some general thoughts and observations on the last three days of baseball:

The Tiger Microbursts

Detroit was the team bringing some magic into the postseason. No one can really believe they’re here—and to be frank, it’s hard to look at the lineup and even figure out how they did it. The formula we saw the last two games in Houston are the answer—you get good pitching to keep games close, and then some well-timed microbursts from unlikely heroes to get over the top.

In Game 1, the Tigers had runners on the corners with two outs in the second inning. Framber Valdez wasn’t particularly crisp, but he was on the verge of escaping with the game still scoreless. With Jake Rogers, the 8-hole hitter up, Detroit manager A.J. Hinch rolled the dice. He gave Rogers the green light on a 3-0 count. Rogers delivered an RBI single. Two more hits followed. The Tigers had a 3-zip lead. They didn’t do anything offensively the rest of the day, but Tarik Skubal and the bullpen had enough to win.

In Game 2, the microburst came late. In a game that stayed 2-2 until the eighth inning, Hinch emptied his bullpen and used seven pitchers. In top of the eighth, there were two outs and the bases were loaded. This time, the unlikely hero was Andy Ibanez. He ripped a bases-clearing double down the left field line and this series was as good as over.

Unlikely heroes stepping up is part of the unpredictability of baseball and Detroit could just as easily have suffered the fate of Baltimore (more on this coming up). But, it has to be said—when you pitch well, you give yourself a chance to win these kinds of games. When your manager recognizes the urgency of the moment and does something unorthodox—the second inning of Game 1—you have a better chance of getting that surprise spark. The Tigers have pitching, and they made good decisions. And, right now, they just have some of that unpredictable wind at their back.

A Contrast in Stars

Baltimore and Kansas City played two incredibly tense pitcher’s duels, with the Royals getting wins of 1-0 and 2-1. The two best shortstops in baseball were on display, and if you want a simple answer for why this series fell the way it did, you can look at the contrast. For K.C., Bobby Witt Jr. had three hits, the only RBI of Game 1, and a nice defensive play deep in the hole in Game 2 when the Orioles had the bases loaded. For Baltimore, Gunnar Henderson went 0-for-7 with a walk and was a non-factor. That’s your series right there.

But before we get overly simplistic, the Orioles have to be doing some self-examination. Taken by itself, this series can be written off as some bad luck—play two more games and maybe Henderson and Witt reverse roles, or any number of factors jump up. But this comes after last season, when Baltimore came into the playoffs as the 1-seed in the American League, promptly lost two at home to the Texas Rangers, and then got swept out on the road in Game 3.

At what point does an unfortunate microburst become telling about a deeper problem? I think Baltimore has arrived at this point.

For the Orioles, I think the problem is simple—they are way too dependent on the home run ball. In the playoffs, you’re facing the best pitching staffs, and those staffs are emptying the holster each time out. You need to have other ways to score runs.

If you look back at our playoff preview earlier this week, I noted Maikel Garcia is a possible difference-maker for the Royals. Garcia isn’t a particularly notable player. But he steals a lot of bases, and with the rules changes of the last two years, this is back to being a significant factor. Garcia stole a base in Game 1, which set him up to score on Witt’s RBI single. Collectively, KC swiped three bags over the two games. The Orioles had none.

Baltimore is a good team that will contend again next year. They have two choices—augment their lineup with some guys who can hit for average and steal a base, to give themselves a better chance in games like this. Or, just ride it out and hope that Anthony Santander can become next year’s Pete Alonso—the big slugger, who, after getting mostly shut down turns into a hero in the blink of an eye. That’s certainly a possible outcome, as every Mets fan is happily aware of today. But what happened to Santander and the rest of the one-dimensional Oriole lineup is more typical. They don’t need a makeover, but they need some smart additions to make next year different.

The Brewer Bullpen

Our discussion about the Orioles is an example of how even the failings in a lightning best-of-three might be considered predictable. What happened to the Brewers is just the opposite—it’s a textbook case of a team doing everything necessary to put themselves in the right position, and then having seemingly reliable assets fail.

The bullpen is Milwaukee’s enduring strength, including its depth. It was true in Craig Counsell’s days and continues to be true under Pat Murphy. The starting pitching isn’t necessarily lights out, but if the Brewers could get a lead after five innings, they were ideally built to close teams out. Especially in the playoffs, with its extra off-days and the ability to empty out a pen when you need it.

In Game 1, the Brew Crew didn’t get great starting pitching, but they had the lead in the fifth inning. Joel Payamps came in and was a complete mess. An untimely error by Jackson Chourio was damaging, but it shouldn’t have led to a five-run inning. Then, there was last night. A 2-0 lead in the ninth inning, keynoted by a brilliant start from Tobias Myers.

While Alonso’s three-run blast was the signature moment, it all started when closer Devin Williams walked Francisco Lindor. I’m aware of Lindor’s excellence, but how do you walk the leadoff man in the ninth inning with a multi-run lead? It suggests that Williams didn’t have his stuff to begin with, and it was followed by a well-hit single off the bat of Brandon Nimmo.

I don’t know what else you say to Brewer fans but “That sucks.” Your team is built a certain way. The games were funneled to feed their strength. And that strength just didn’t come through. That the Mets would beat the Brewers in a battle of the bullpens is quite improbable and was unlikely to last much longer. But it only had to last three days.

If Baltimore’s fate is a good example of a team’s need to be self-aware and not use the “it’s a short series” excuse, Milwaukee’s fate is an example for Major League Baseball to be self-aware and make all postseason series a little bit longer—especially for teams that won their division.

San Diego Unloads

The Padres-Braves series was probably the least interesting. After a trying, injury-marred regular season went beyond the final day, Atlanta looked ready to just call it a year and go home. Chris Sale certainly was. It took six months, but the unreliable starter Red Sox fans had come to know, finally appeared. He had to be scratched from a do-or-die game against the Mets to end the regular season and he was nowhere to be seen in San Diego.

Meanwhile, the Padre bats just dominated. They had the unlikely hero in 9-hole hitter Kyle Higashioka, who homered in both games. They had the expected heroes, with Luis Arraez and Jackson Merrill getting three hits apiece over the two games. Fernando Tatis Jr. had four hits, and also homered. And they got the clutch at-bat from the big star. While Manny Machado had only one hit, it was a big one—a two-out/two-run double early in Game 2. That set up Merrill to do the same, and San Diego was on its way.

On its way to the Division Series that is. The matchups are now as follows:

Kansas City – NY Yanks
Detroit – Cleveland
San Diego – LA Dodgers
NY Mets – Philadelphia

It begins with a quadruple header tomorrow, which is when we’ll be back in this space with previews and predictions for all four series.