MLB Notebook: Playoff Preview
The Major League Baseball playoffs start today at 2:30 PM EST. We’ll set the table with a concise overview of all 12 teams and ask two simple questions about each one—how do they win, and what could trip them up?
As anyone who has watched even a handful of baseball postseasons know, the possibility of the unexpected looms larger here than in the NBA or NFL. The player who had a mediocre year becomes a star for a week and transforms a series. The elite MVP candidate goes into a slump. The possibilities are endless.
Therefore, as we make our assessments, we use the assumption that each team’s strengths and weaknesses will flow more or less as they did throughout the regular season. Even if we know that it won’t play out quite like that, it gives us a baseline understanding of each team and the ability to decide who has the best hand to play this October.
Let’s start with the four teams who earned first-round byes and won’t have to begin play until the Divisional Round starts this weekend. Each team’s record, seeding and odds to win the World Series are in parentheses:
LA DODGERS (98-64, National League #1, +300)
How They Win: The star power in the lineup is fearsome. Shohei Ohtani’s dominating regular season is the focal point. But the Dodgers finished second in MLB in runs scored, even with Mookie Betts missing a good chunk of time, Max Muncy missing for a lot of the year, and Freddie Freeman dealing with a bad ankle. While Freeman will still play hurt, Betts and Muncy are healthy, and we still have to mention Teoscar Hernandez and his 33 home runs. Or catcher Will Smith and his 20 bombs. Los Angeles has seven legitimate threats in its batting order.
What Could Trip Them Up: Who do you really feel good about giving the ball to each game? Yoshinobu Yamamoto has pitched well, but in very limited work—only 90 innings. Jack Flaherty has been respectable since his acquisition at the trade deadline, but he flopped badly for Baltimore last year. Walker Buehler has a better history, but also a 5.38 ERA in only 75 innings this season. Who knows if Clayton Kershaw can pitch, and even in his prime, who knows what to expect from him in October. Los Angeles finished 19th in the league for starters’ ERA. They have some decent arms in the bullpen, but even there it’s not deep. They have to get through six or seven innings, and I’m not sure who they count on to do that.
PHILADELPHIA (95-67, National League #2, +375)
How They Win: There’s no facet of the game the Phillies don’t do at least reasonably well. They have a legitimate star in Bryce Harper who could sizzle enough to carry them for a series or two. Kyle Schwarber draws walks and hits for power. Trea Turner hits for average, has some power, steals bases, and plays a good shortstop. Players ranging from Brandon Marsh to Nick Castellanos to J.T. Realmulto fall in the category of “not stars, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see them end as a series MVP.” The starting rotation has four legitimate horses in Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez. While the bullpen collectively was mediocre—16th in relievers’ ERA—manager Rob Thomson seems to have found four steady arms he can rely on.
What Could Trip Them Up: Beyond Harper, Wheeler, and arguably Schwarber, there’s no one in the lineup that’s a true star. Which means if any of them have a bad series, you’re reliant on above-average players to play one level higher. It’s not an unreasonable ask, but what happens if you get a series where no one really tanks, but no one stands out? Postseasons are a time for stars. If Philadelphia and Los Angeles handle their Division Series business and meet in the NLCS, it will offer a fascinating contrast between one lineup that’s top-heavy on stars, and another that’s deeper, but a little less flashy.
NY YANKEES (94-68, American League #1, +400)
How They Win: Like their big market cousins in Los Angeles, the Yankees bring a heavy dose of stardom. Aaron Judge has been the best player in baseball this year, and Juan Soto isn’t far behind. The pitching is consistent up and down, with no weaknesses in the rotation or the bullpen. While no one in the rotation has been a true ace this year, Gerritt Cole has a demonstrated history of putting teams on his back—including in October. New York won’t give up many runs. Judge and Soto can create them. And if you mix in Giancarlo Stanton hitting for some power and Anthony Volpe swiping a few key bases, the Yanks will be tough to beat.
What Could Trip Them Up: As noted at the top, our working assumption has been players going more or less to the regular season standard. But, just as its not unreasonable to think Cole could pitch above that level, it’s also not unreasonable to think Judge, Soto, or both, could be shut down. And this lineup is very top-heavy dependent on those two to produce. While New York is capable of winning low-scoring games, that’s not a position a favorite—and the Yankees are a heavy favorite to at least reach the World Series—wants to find themselves in.
CLEVELAND (92-69, American League #2, +1100)
How They Win: The Guardians have four relievers with ERAs under 2, and they have the game’s best closer in Emmanuel Clase. Any game they lead after five innings puts the opponent in a difficult spot. To get that lead, Cleveland is led by baseball’s best third baseman in Jose Ramirez. Steven Kwan, while slumping in the second half, is a good contact hitter who can set the table. Andres Giminez can steal some bases. Josh Naylor provides some supplemental power. In the rotation, Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively are respectable. And keep an eye on 33-year-old Matthew Boyd, who has posted a 2.72 ERA in his eight starts. Is he going to be the October Surprise?
What Could Trip Them Up: Let’s pick up where we left off and that starting rotation. Are opposing teams going to look at any of those names and think “We better not to have face them in a must-win spot”? Cleveland’s rotation ERA was a woeful 24th in the major leagues. It’s a credit to the bullpen and manager Stephen Vogt that they navigated this problem and still finished third overall in composite ERA. But getting to the pen against the best lineups in baseball won’t be easy. And there are a lot of weak spots in the lineup. It’s hard to see how they score if Ramirez isn’t great.
The remaining eight teams are in what a friend of mine calls “The 27-Hour Death Trap”. Where their entire season could be over in that span of time between today and tomorrow in the best-of-three wild-card round.
MILWAUKEE (93-69, National League #3, +1800)
How They Win: The Brew Crew scores runs behind the best catcher in baseball with William Contreras, power from Willy Adames and Rhys Hoskins, and an emerging star in 20-year-old leftfielder Jackson Chourio. They have X-factors in Garrett Mitchell, who slugged .472 in 68 games and Brice Turang, who stole 50 bases. Milwaukee can score, and they have a deep and solid bullpen that can start closing games out early.
What Could Trip Them Up: A pitching staff very similar to their Big Ten cousins in Cleveland is weak at the top. Freddy Peralta, Aaron Civale, and Tobias Myers are good enough, but none are what you would call an ace. On a team with a deep bullpen, that’s fine to grind out wins during a long regular season. Will it be enough in the playoffs when you go against other teams’ aces? Answer that question and you have answered the question about the Brewers’ fate.
SAN DIEGO (93-69, National League #4, +1200)
How They Win: For playing in one of the game’s more notorious pitchers’ parks, the Padres do a good job scoring runs, ranking seventh in the league. They do it the old-fashioned way—putting the bat on the ball consistently. San Diego’s team batting average is the best in baseball, a clear result of acquiring Luis Arraez from Miami early in the season. Centerfielder Jackson Merrill hit .292, and also steals bases and hits for power. Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis, and Jurickson Profar both had good years, with 20-plus homers. The Padres also strengthened their bullpen with imports from Miami, and the relief corps they have in place right now is better than a ranking of 11th in bullpen ERA might suggest.
What Could Trip Them Up: Another team with some starting pitching issues. The numbers aren’t bad—Michael King has a 2.95 ERA in 30 starts, while Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish, and Joe Musgrove in the 3s. But the same caveat that benefits the offense—the vast expanse of Petco Park—has to be weighed against the pitching staff’s numbers. At home, that could play out by a road team’s pitchers seeming to be suddenly more productive than they were during the regular season, thanks to the park effects. On the road, San Diego’s pitching could get exposed.
BALTIMORE (91-71, American League #4, +900)
How They Win: Gunnar Henderson is one of baseball’s great all-around players. He has an OBP of .366, has hit 37 homers, stolen 21 bases, and play good defense at shortstop. He can carry a team in a short series. And the Birds can hit home runs. Anthony Santander has 44 bombs, Colton Cowser has 24 and the team overall ranks 2nd in homers behind only the Yankees. One big three-run jack can win you a game and that win can swing a short series. Then, ride the good arms of Corbin Burnes and Zach Eflin.
What Could Trip Them Up: Live by the sword, die by the sword. If Baltimore doesn’t hit home runs, or if Henderson is anything less than great, the Oriole offense could wither. The bullpen is a significant problem, ranking 23rd in the league and not even having one single arm that you can circle and say “Get me to that guy.” Baltimore is going to have to win high-scoring games. They have the firepower to do it, but that’s a lot to ask against playoff pitching staffs.
ATLANTA (89-73, National League #5, +2200)
How They Win: Atlanta has the best pitching in baseball, and it is strong from the rotation to the bullpen. The likely Cy Young Award winner, Chris Sale, heads up the rotation. Max Fried and Reynaldo Lopez have had good years. Charlie Morton’s ERA is up over 4, but he’s a proven postseason pitcher. The relief corps is exceptionally deep. Brian Snitker can go to his pen whenever he wants, as often as he wants. The regular lineup has Ozzie Albies back healthy, and can get some hits from Ramon Laureano and Jorge Soler. All of which can set up the big guns, Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna to produce.
What Could Trip Them Up: The Braves had to go beyond the final day to get in the playoffs because they’ve been riddled with injuries. Third base is a big hole without Austin Riley. While they hit for power, the batting order doesn’t put the ball in play consistently. That’s a formula that can lead to some long dry spells. Well, in this case, not long—because a short dry spell means the end of the season.
NY METS (89-73, National League #6, +2200)
How They Win: Much like San Diego, New York scores runs consistently in a park that’s not designed for offense. Francisco Lindor is the biggest reason why, with a great all-around year that will get him in the top 3 of the final NL MVP results. Pete Alonso is capable of a power surge that could carry a team. Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, and David Peterson are all starting pitchers capable of getting on a roll.
What Could Trip Them Up: By the standards of a playoff team, the Mets just have a lot of weaknesses. The bullpen is a mess and it would be a miracle if they got through any kind of extended run without having to overcome a blown lead—the win they got yesterday in Atlanta to make it in being a prime example. And while I said above the Alonso, Severino, Manaea, and Peterson were all capable, that was looking for the bright side. Alonso is also the kind of slugger who can go 0-for-12 with six strikeouts at the drop of a hat. The pitching staff, given their home environment, is pedestrian.
HOUSTON (88-73, American League #3, +850)
How They Win: Look at the Astros’ betting odds in comparison to their won-loss record. There’s a reason for that and it’s a good one. It’s called confidence in players with a championship pedigree. Jose Altuve has been good-but-not-great this year. Do you want to pitch to him in a big spot? The same goes for Alex Bregman, who hit 26 homers this year, but had a poor on-base percentage. Or Jeremy Pena, who was unproductive at the plate this year, but still stole 20 bags and was both ALCS and World Series MVP in 2022. Then you throw in a healthy Kyle Tucker, along with Yordan Alvarez and you’ll score some runs. Hand the ball to Framber Valdez, as reliable a big-game pitcher as there is, and then hope Justin Verlander can wake up the echoes one more time.
What Could Trip Them Up: We won’t waste a lot of ink in this space, because it’s just the reverse of what’s in the first paragraph—if any of the players listed perform to their 2024 standards rather than their glory days of previous Octobers, Houston will be gone before the League Championship Series round. And given that Alvarez’ injury status for the Wild-Card Round is still up in the air hours before the first pitch, that’s one more obstacle.
KANSAS CITY (86-76, American League #5, +3000)
How They Win: The Royals have excellent starting pitching and one of the great all-around players in baseball with shortstop Bobby Witt. The latter was even better than Baltimore’s Henderson this year, hitting .332, popping 32 homers, stealing 31 bases and clearing the 100-threshold for both RBIs and runs scored. The rotation has four legitimate horses in Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Brady Singer. Kansas City’s lineup has some X-factors in the power of MJ Melendez and the speed of Maikel Garcia. And catcher Salvador Perez is a proud warrior who hit 27 homers and was a hero of this franchise’s run to the 2015 World Series title. Even the bullpen, the biggest weak link, shows signs of a combination coming together.
What Could Trip Them Up: We’ll start where we left off above, and that’s the bullpen—Kansas City finished 20th in the majors for relievers’ ERA. There are also a lot of weak points in the batting order, meaning the Royals are another team heavily dependent on their stars being stars in a short series.
DETROIT (86-76, American League #6, +3000)
How They Win: Detroit’s staff ERA is the fourth-best in baseball, and they rank equally well in both the rotation and the bullpen. They also have a clear ace—in fact THE ace in major league baseball for 2024. Tarik Skubal posted a 2.32 ERA in over 190 innings of work is a lock for the AL Cy Young Award. They can keep games close, and then need Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter to give them just enough offense to win. The Tigers are also the surprise, surging team that no one can really believe is in the playoffs. That kind of magic can’t be overlooked in October.
What Could Trip Them Up: The offense. It’s really not more complicated than that While Greene and Carpenter are both good hitters, it’s not like using the names of Judge and Soto to headline a top-heavy act. Detroit just has holes up and down the batting order.
That’s a general overview of the 12 teams. Personally, I like Philadelphia’s hand the best. I like the balance of consistency and star power. From the standpoint of expectations, as reflected in the betting odds, I think Kansas City is the most underrated team. But they have to survive the 27-Hour Death Trap.
Here are the Wild-Card Round matchups. The higher seeded team hosts the entire round:
Detroit – Houston (winner plays Cleveland)
Kansas City – Baltimore (winner plays NY Yanks)
Atlanta – San Diego (winner plays LA Dodgers)
NY Mets – Milwaukee (winner plays Philadelphia)
We’ll be back in this space on Thursday or Friday with a recap of those four matchups. Then, on Saturday, we’ll preview the Division Series.