MLB: NL West July Check-In

The NL West has a familiar and expected shape as we near the end of July. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in command to win this division. But there are still other contenders. The San Diego Padres would make the playoffs if the season ended today, and the Arizona Diamondbacks are right there as they bid for a return to the World Series. Here’s a snapshot look at these three contenders, along with the San Francisco Giants, who are clinging on the fringe, and the hopeless Colorado Rockies.

LA Dodgers
The Dodgers are an offensive machine, leading the National League in runs scored in spite of playing in a pitcher-friendly park. Shohei Ohtani is making a bid to be the first pure DH to win the MVP award. Shohei has a stat line of .402 on-base percentage/.638 slugging percentage, with 31 homers. Freddie Freeman is rolling along, with a vintage stat line of .395/.483. Will Smith continues to be one of the NL’s more productive catchers. Home Run Derby Champ Teoscar Hernandez has hit 21 homers that actually count. Anything else? Oh, Mookie Betts, who was playing at an MVP pace before getting hurt, will be back in August. So will third baseman Max Muncy. Without making a single trade, the best lineup in the game will get even better.

Pitching is a little more problematic. Los Angeles needs help in both the rotation and the bullpen. The injured list could again come to the rescue when Walker Buehler returns. But this is an organization that, for all of its free spending, has never done a good job compiling quality depth on its pitching staff.

San Diego
Jurickson Profar has shouldered the load for the offense, with a .367/.493 stat line. The trade for second baseman Luis Arraez has borne the expected fruit, as one of the best contact hitters in baseball has a .314 batting average in 66 games as a Padre. Otherwise, I’m not sure how San Diego has managed to rank a respectable sixth in the National League for runs scored. Both Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts are having off-years. If one or both of them get going, San Diego could be a dangerous team these next two months and into October.

But that will take pitching. The Padres’ top three in their rotation, Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Matt Waldron, all have ERAs in the 3s. That’s respectable, but given how pitcher-friendly Petco Park is, it’s also a little misleading. They need some help, and it may come down to whether Yu Darvish or Joe Musgrove can get healthy and effective.

Arizona
Ketel Marte was an October hero as the Diamondbacks rolled to the National League pennant, and the second baseman has carried that momentum into 2024. His stat line is .366/.530, and he is the fuel for an offense that trails only the Dodgers in scoring runs. Marte gets help from Christian Walker and his 23 homers, along with Joc Pederson (.378/.510). The more troubling question in the desert is whether Corbin Carroll’s terrific rookie season was a fluke—he’s been awful.

Arizona needs all the runs they can get because the pitching is some of the worst in the NL. Can Zac Gallen, sitting on a 3.70 ERA, pitch better? Jordan Montgomery just got healthy. Can he pitch well? Eduardo Rodriguez and Merrill Kelly, both key parts of last year’s rotation, are also expected to return from the IL. Their fate will go along way to deciding the fate of the Diamondbacks.

San Francisco
At 50-55, the Giants are 5 ½ off the pace for the last wild-card spot, but they also have four teams to catch. They need sustained consistency for over two months, and that’s tough to do when you have no pitching and not much in the way of reasonable hope for getting better. The bright spot in the Bay Area is 24-year-old centerfielder Heliot Ramos, who has a .356/.519 stat line.

Colorado
A shoutout to starting pitcher Cal Quantrill whose 4.09 ERA is pretty good considering his home park is Coors Field. A non-shoutout to Kris Bryant, who has been an injury-riddled mess over three years in Denver. Bryant, along with Detroit’s Javier Baez, are two former Cub players who have been complete disasters since leaving Wrigley Field.