MLB: NL East July Check-In

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The NL East has the best team in baseball, with the Philadelphia Phillies holding a comfortable lead in this division and holding at least a little bit of cushion for homefield advantage in both the National League playoffs and eventually the World Series. There are viable wild-card contenders in the injury-riddled Atlanta Braves and the enigmatic New York Mets. Here’s a brief look-in at these three teams, along with the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins:

Philadelphia
The Phillies have star power in the everyday lineup and in the starting rotation. Bryce Harper is having a vintage year with a stat line of .395 on-base percentage/.578 slugging percentage. Alec Bohm is having a breakout campaign at third base, with numbers of .350/.475. Kyle Schwarber’s power is down a bit, but the patient leadoff man still has a .367 OBP. Trea Turner is at .387/535, terrific numbers for anyone, and especially for a shortstop. The pitching rotation has Cy Young candidates in Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suarez. Cristopher Sanchez isn’t far behind. And we haven’t gotten to the perennial staff ace, Aaron Nola. While not dominating, Nola is still 11-4 with a 3.54 ERA.

Where the Phils have to see concerns is in the bullpen—they don’t have stability at closer and they aren’t deep. Their cushion in the NL East is big enough that it probably won’t matter much for the next two months, but that’s a big deal in the playoffs. They could also use some help in the outfield. The good news for Philly fans is that those are weaknesses that can be reasonably addressed these next several days leading up to the trade deadline.

Atlanta
The Braves lost MVP outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. early on. They lost Cy Young contender and 20-game winner Spencer Strider. They just lost second baseman Ozzie Albies over the weekend. This is in addition to getting really bad years from Matt Olson, Sean Murphy, Travis d’Arnaud, and Orlando Arcia. It’s a great credit to manager Brian Snitker that the Braves are still on track to be the 4-seed. And who knows, if they can get just a couple of these guys playing well, October is a whole different ballgame—as this franchise knows better than anyone.

Marcell Ozuna has carried the load offensively. The DH has hit 28 homers and driven in 79 runs. Chris Sale is anchoring the staff, with a 13-3 record and 2.70 ERA putting him in contention for the first Cy Young Award of his career. But Sale has a long history of fading in August and September. Atlanta needs their underperforming pieces to pick up and a solid bullpen, led by Raisel Iglesias and Jesse Chavez, to keep rolling.

NY Mets
The Mets are currently fifth in the National League for runs scored and only 11^th in ERA. Given that they play in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball, that means the actual chasm between the bats and arms is even wider. The rotation is mediocre, although it’s at least plausible that any of Luis Severino (3.58 ERA), Jose Quintana (4.13), or Sean Manaea (3.73) could get locked in for two months. But the bullpen is a mess.

So, whether or not New York, squarely on the playoff bubble, can play their way in, likely rests on the bats. Mark Vientos is having a nice year at third base, with a .351/.536 stat line. Francisco Lindor is respectable, at .348/.448. The same goes for Brandon Nimmo, at .358/.439. J.D. Martinez isn’t what he once was, but the veteran DH is still getting on base and slugging .446. And while Pete Alonso has been one-dimensional, at least that dimension involves hitting 19 home runs. All of these players need to keep hitting, and they need to be joined by second baseman Jeff McNeil, struggling through a rough year, if the Mets are going to make it.

Washington
The Nationals are on the very fringes of playoff contention, 4 ½ games out of the last wild-card spot, but with six teams to leapfrog. They really don’t have any room for error. Even so, manager Dave Martinez deserves a lot of credit for squeezing the most out of this young team. C.J. Abrams, the 23-year-old shortstop, is a rising star, and has a stat line of .339/.480. RIghtfielder Lane Thomas and starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore are good young pieces. Washington has a ways to go to being what they were from 2012-19, but there’s hope in the nation’s capital for the first time in a while.

Miami
It’s kind of a sad, lost season in Miami, just a year after making the playoffs. They traded away second baseman Luis Arraez early on, a very quick wave of the white flag. The only bright spot is closer Tanner Scott, who has saved 16 games with a 1.27 ERA. And bright spots on a team like this are usually shipped out at this time of year.