MLB: NL Central July Check-In
The NL Central continues to be comfortably led by the surprising Milwaukee Brewers. The even-more surprising Pittsburgh Pirates, along with the St. Louis Cardinals, are squarely in the wild-card hunt and still have a shot at chasing down Milwaukee. The Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs aren’t hopeless, but nor do they have any margin left for error. Our late summer review of the six divisions concludes with an NL Central snapshot:
Milwaukee
The Brewers made some peripheral additions to their starting rotation in the July trading season, adding Aaron Civale and Frankie Montas. While not dazzling names, these are nice additions to the league’s third-best pitching staff. Nobody has been a clear ace, something that could be a problem for Milwaukee in October. But sitting here today, with our only question being whether or not they can capture the Central, there’s nothing better than a deep and balanced pitching staff. The Crew has it.
Christian Yelich’s health is going to be the defining factor this lineup. Yelich was playing at an MVP level before a back injury just after the All-Star break. He sat on a stat line of .406 on-base percentage/.504 slugging. He was carrying an offense that has some decent performers in Joey Ortiz, Willy Adames, and Sal Frelick, but Yelich was the reason the Brewers were fifth in the National League in runs scored. He’s on the injured list right now, but has opted against surgery and will come back in August. Whether he can still produce is the question that lingers over Milwaukee.
Pittsburgh
The overachieving Pirates are doing it with a starting rotation led by rookie phenom Paul Skenes. Fresh off leading LSU to a national championship in 2023, Skenes has a 6-1 record and 1.90 ERA. The ever-steady Mitch Keller is behind him, and Jared Jones will soon be coming off the IL. Marco Gonzalez has gotten a shot and posted a 3.72 ERA in his six starts.
It’s the starting pitching that will have to push Pittsburgh over the finish line, because the bullpen is spotty, and the offense has little beyond Bryan Reynolds (.354/.483, 18 homers). Oneil Cruz is a power source at shortstop with 17 homers, but isn’t consistent enough in getting on base. The trade deadline acquisition of Bryan De La Cruz from Miami was interesting and a good sign of front office commitment. But there’s nothing in these season’s numbers to suggest he’ll be a difference maker.
St. Louis
The Cardinals made the most impressive move of the trade deadline, adding starting pitcher Erick Fedde (3.11 ERA) to a staff that has been mostly mediocre. If the Cards get steady starting pitching, they have a deep and well-balanced bullpen, led by closer Ryan Helsley’s 33 saves and 2.15 ERA.
Age and offense are what it come down to for St. Louis. The Cardinals are 14th in the National League in runs scored, thanks mainly to poor years from 36-year-old first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and 33-year-old third baseman Nolan Arenado. Are they done or are they going to put it together down the stretch? Answer that question and you probably answer who wins the Central. The same rationale applies to the rotation, where Fedde joins a group that includes Miles Mikolas (35), Kyle Gibson (36), Sonny Gray (34), and Lance Lynn (37).
Cincinnati
Montas wasn’t having a good year (5.01 ERA), but the Reds’ decision to trade him to Milwaukee was likely a sign the white flag is being waved. Cincinnati has a nice core of starting pitching in Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene, and Nick Lodolo. But Graham Ashcraft hasn’t pitched well and is now injured. While the bullpen has been very good as a group, closer Alexis Diaz, so good in 2023, has been roughed up this year. The Reds have the game’s most electric young star in Elly De La Cruz (.352/.490, 18 homers, 55 stolen bases), but as a group they are underachieving.
Chi Cubs
And speaking of underachieving, we come to the North Side of Chicago, where the Cubbies are in last place, but still within six games of the last wild-card spot. In a surprise move, they went out and helped themselves at the trade deadline by getting Tampa third baseman Isaac Paredes. Cody Bellinger is finally healthy. Chicago has four good starting pitchers in Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele, and Javier Assad. The bullpen is steadily getting better. I see the Cubs making a move these last two months. But while the six-game margin is manageable, the six teams they will have to leapfrog is a higher bar.
Our MLB notebooks will return as we get closer to the postseason. In the meantime, this space will pick up where it left off on NFL divisional previews for the balance of the summer.