MLB Notebook: League Championship Series Previews
The League Championship Series round begins tonight, as we begin a week-plus of baseball that will settle the National League and American League pennants. Here’s our preview of Yankees-Guardians in the ALCS and Dodgers-Mets in the NLCS. Betting odds are in parentheses, with the schedule and TV location italicized:
ALCS: NY Yankees – Cleveland (NY – 190)
Mon-Tue: at New York
Thur-Fri-Sat: at Cleveland
Mon-Tue: at New York
All games on TBS
Let’s start with this—in almost every facet of the game you have to either give the Yankees the edge, or at least a draw. They have two superstars (Aaron Judge and Juan Soto) to one (Jose Ramirez). While Judge had a bad series against Kansas City, he was also starting to make some good contact the last couple of games. He looks like someone who could get settled in and open up. Ramirez struggled against Detroit. While the fact the Tigers wouldn’t pitch to him was the primary cause, there’s no reason that’s going to change against New York. So, if you’re looking for a star to take over, the odds are with New York.
If you’re looking for starting pitching to take control, the Yankees also have the edge. Gerrit Cole is the most dominant starter on either side. He’s lined up for Game 2, and presumably a Game 6. New York won both of his starts against KC. Cleveland has some respectable starters, but no one with Cole’s resume, and no matchup that you can say unambiguously favors them.
Cleveland does have a terrific bullpen. They are deep and they have dominating arms. Starters need only get them through 4-5 innings. But New York is no slouch in this area. Clay Holmes and Luke Weaver were dominant against the Royals, and arms like Tommy Kahnle are in reserve. While the Yankees would be best served by getting early leads, they don’t have to shrink at the thought of a bullpen battle.
If you look for players beyond the stars likely to step up, who is a better bet than Giancarlo Stanton? I don’t have to sell anyone in Kansas City on that idea—if they gave out a Division Series MVP award (which they should do), Stanton would have won it.
There’s also the question of matchups. Just as the Yankees have fared poorly against the Astros in this era, and they struggled with the Tigers at the end of the A-Rod era, New York has done very well against Cleveland in the Judge era. The Yanks won this matchup in the Division Series in both 2017 and 2022. Those patterns often hold.
So, is it all hopeless for Cleveland? Of course not. This is a team that won 92 games and won a postseason series. They can beat anyone in a best-of-seven. They do have the best pure contact hitter on either side in Steven Kwan. Putting the ball in play takes an outsized importance in low-scoring close games. You at least give yourself a chance for that seeing-eye grounder or bloop hit that decides a game. They had their own hero in Lane Thomas step up against Detroit. If the starters can grind through the first few innings, these games will be close, and anything can happen.
That’s the path for the Guardians to win their first pennant since 2016, but there are a lot more paths open to the Yankees to reach their first World Series since 2009. I think we’ll see some good games, but the series as a whole will be decisive—New York in five.
NLCS: LA Dodgers – NY Mets (Dodgers -180)
Sun-Mon: at Los Angeles
Wed-Thur-Fri: at New York
Sun-Mon: at Los Angeles
Games 1,2 and 7 on Fox, all others on FS1
The first five innings of these games could be electric. Dodger starting pitching only ranked 19th in the majors during the regular season, and until they got a great start from Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 5 against the Padres, had been no better in the Division Series. While brilliant bullpen work went a long way, the L.A. relief corps is not exceptionally deep. In a best-of-seven, they are going to have to find a way to get into the sixth inning with the starter at least a couple of times.
But Met pitching wasn’t much better during the regular season. And while New York got terrific work from their starters against Philadelphia, that’s still not enough to be confident in these arms going up against the most star-laden lineup in baseball. The Met bullpen is an interesting phenomenon. They weren’t good during the regular season and weren’t even particularly hot coming in. In fact, the epic game they won against Atlanta to qualify for the playoffs was only epic because New York’s bullpen was a spectacular mess.
What the Mets have been able to do is hit in the late innings. They got an epic home run from Pete Alonso to win the Wild-Card Round in Milwaukee and a big grand slam from Francisco Lindor to wrap up the Division Series over Philadelphia. They’ve got big hits late from several others, most notably Mark Vientos, who was the best player on any team during the Division Series.
All of which is to say that we should expect some high-scoring games. That was the expectation when L.A. played San Diego and it held true for three games, until the Dodgers won the race to find some pitching. I’m going to expect a similar storyline here. We’ll see some 6-4 or even 8-5 games, and somebody will figure out a formula as the series hits its midway point.
If it does play out that way, this is anyone’s series to take, and New York is playing with real confidence. But Los Angeles does have more stars, and more ability to blow some games open. Teoscar Hernandez hit big home runs against the Padres. While Mookie Betts only went 4-for-18, two of these were home runs, and he was robbed of a third homer. Max Muncy started to look more comfortable at the plate as the San Diego series evolved. Even if Shohei Ohtani stays in the funk he’s been in since a Game 1 blast, the Dodgers could get a couple of easy wins behind their offensive depth. Easy wins will make managing the bullpen the rest of the series a lot easier.
That’s why I’ll also play the chalk in the National League. While I think the Mets are a more viable underdog than the Guardians, Los Angeles still ultimately prevails in six games.