MLB Notebook: Division Series Previews

The Division Series round starts today at 1 PM ET, and all four matchups will be in action, as a Saturday quadruple header gets us going. Here’s our look at each series, with betting odds included:

(6)Detroit – (2)Cleveland (Guardians -125)
We have to assume this will be a pitching-dominant series, with each staff ranking in the top four of MLB overall for composite ERA. But they got there in different ways. Cleveland has had problems with starting pitching, ranking just 24th in rotation ERA. They counter it with the best bullpen in the game and the magnificent Emmanuel Clase closing games. Detroit’s staff is balanced all the way across and has presumed Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal going in Game 2 tomorrow. I presume that schedule would allow Skubal to be available in some capacity for a potential Game 5.

That means the Tigers have an opportunity in the first 5-6 innings to get an edge. But do they have the firepower to do it? The Guardians have far more weapons offensively. Jose Ramirez is the best player in this series and has to put his mark on it at some point. Steven Kwan can put the ball in play consistently, Josh Naylor hits home runs, while both Andres Giminez and Lane Thomas can steal a base.

On paper, the edge goes to Cleveland. But good pitching tends to control good hitting in the playoffs. If that happens, we’re looking at series of tight, low-scoring games. Right now, Detroit is the hot team. The Guardians need to create some space and get at least one or two wins with some degree of ease. The Tigers just have too much close game mojo going for them right now. For that reasons, I’m leaning Detroit to keep this ride going a little longer and win a five-game series.

(5)Kansas City – (1)NY Yankees (Yankees -210)
We wake up the echoes of 1976-80, when these teams played in the ALCS four times. Some of the game’s brightest stars are on display—Aaron Judge and Juan Soto for New York, and Bobby Witt Jr. for Kansas City.

For the Yankees, the overriding question is whether players with star potential can get to that level. I’m thinking of Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup and Gerrit Cole in the rotation. Cole is the Game 1 starter. Last year’s Cy Young winner never really rounded into form after an injury this year. But if he’s right, he can win two games and effectively put this series to bed.

The Royals have a proud veteran of their own in catcher Salvador Perez. The last holdover from the 2015 championship team—a year he was World Series MVP—Perez is still a good power hitter. But Kansas City’s overriding advantage is an excellent starting rotation. There is no weak point among their top four starters. While the bullpen’s year-long numbers aren’t good, they appear to have found their combination—as evidenced in Baltimore this week.

This is why Cole must be great for the Yanks. If he’s not, the Royals will have a starting pitching advantage that’s enough to overcome New York’s star power. And with Witt playing well in the wild-card series, KC’s own star doesn’t appear awed by the postseason stage. I’m picking another upset here and saying Royals in 4—and in either case, I think this is your de facto ALCS. So, I guess I’ve just picked Kansas City to go to the World Series.

(6)NY Mets – (2)Philadelphia (Phils – 180)
Let’s start with this—the Phillies are a better team. They have balanced starting pitching, with a clear ace in Zack Wheeler. They have a lineup that does everything well collectively and has a signature star in Bryce Harper, who could take over a series at a moment’s notice. The bullpen, like Kansas City’s, doesn’t have good year-long numbers (16th overall), but have settled on four arms (Carlos Estevez, Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm and Orion Kierkering) with sub-3.00 ERAs. They have enough of everything to win.

The Mets obviously have talent—starting with shortstop Francisco Lindor. No one in the city of Milwaukee is going to bet against Pete Alonso’s ability to hit a series-changing home run. But there isn’t a clear ace you would count on for a must-win game. Their own bullpen always feels like a train wreck waiting to happen.

What New York has going for them is the same thing as Detroit—that late-season momentum and the feeling that something special is happening. That matters a lot in close games. We might also add that since the playoffs expanded to include six teams per league in 2022, the 6-seed has won the National League pennant both times.

So, what I am saying? That the Mets are going to keep it going? Not here. Philadelphia has won five postseason series over the last two years. They can play at this time of year and they are better. I think they sweep New York out.

(4)San Diego – (1)LA Dodgers (Dodgers – 135)
The Dodgers, like the Phils, are better than their opponent, but Los Angeles has got some weaknesses. Yes, they can overwhelm you with star power—Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez and an exceptionally deep lineup. But their starting pitching is a mess.

On a composite basis, they only ranked 19th in starters’ ERA. Individually, who does Dave Roberts trust in a must-win spot? Yoshinubu Yamamoto is the nominal ace and Game 1 starter—and he posted a respectable 3.00 ERA. He also only pitched 90 innings. Who knows what to expect from Game 2 starter Jack Flaherty. And that’s the cream of the crop. The bullpen has Michael Kopech and Alex Vesia, but closer Evan Phillips can be shaky.

As usual, Los Angeles is a team that, for all its spending, has a roster that’s riddled with holes underneath the glitter. The question here is whether or not San Diego is the right team to take advantage of that. The Padres certainly have the bats to be able to hit Dodger pitching. But can they contain L.A. in return? Yes, someone like a Michael King could replicate his wild-card gem when he shut out Atlanta. But is King really more likely to do that for San Diego than Yamamoto is for Los Angeles?

Without knowing which (if any) starting pitchers will stand up—and I don’t know how anyone would know that outside of randomly throwing darts, I think you have to assume a series of high-scoring games. And in that scenario, I’ll ride with the Dodger stars. Los Angeles in four.

This round could potentially go to next Friday (when American League Game 5s are scheduled) and next Saturday (when the NL finales would be played). Whenever they end, we’ll be back with a recap.