MLB: AL East July Check-In

Our July baseball review begins with the AL East. The Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees both look like locks for the postseason, their fight for the division title will almost certainly decide a first-round bye, and perhaps the #1 seed. The Boston Red Sox have quietly climbed up the ladder and are not only in playoff contention, but have even become a dark horse for the division crown. The Tampa Bay Rays are clinging to life as far as playoff hopes go. And north of the border, this is looking like a lost season for the Toronto Blue Jays.

Here’s a quick snapshot look at each team:

Baltimore
Another amazing job for Oriole manager Brandon Hyde, who has pieced together the fifth-best pitching staff in the American League based on composite ERA, in spite of losing Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish and John Means. A big reason is that Corbin Burnes is 10-4 with 2.38 ERA in his 20 starts. Burnes is a Cy Young contender, and shortstop Gunnar Henderson is an MVP candidate. Henderson has a stat line of .378 on-base percentage/.586 slugging percentage and has hit 28 homers. Anthony Santander has added 26 home runs. Baltimore has hit more homers than anyone in the league.

Where the Birds face challenges is keeping the depth in their pitching rotation going after all the injuries. The offense is also very reliant on the long ball. Henderson and steady catcher Adley Rutschman are the only two players who have OBPs higher than .340 or batting averages better than .275 (and Rutschman is one bad day from slipping below those thresholds). We’ll see if Baltimore adds depth at the trade deadline.

NY Yankees
Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are the toast of the Big Apple and have virtually singlehandedly carried the Yankee offense the most runs in the American League. Judge’s  numbers are a stat line of .435/.677 with 34 homers. Soto is at .433/.569 with 23 homers. The league’s second-best bullpen is anchored by a terrific trio in Clay Holmes, Luke Weaver, and Michael Tonkin.

But New York has even bigger depth problems than Baltimore. If Judge and Soto don’ t hit, the Yanks are out of luck. They will get Giancarlo Stanton off the injured list soon, and Anthony Rizzo may follow in August. Between players getting healthy and deadline moves, this lineup needs 2-3 more consistent bats. They also need starting pitching and have to hope that Gerritt Cole—who has only made six starts after opening the year on the IL—has a strong closing push ahead of him.

Boston
It’s been about starting pitching in Boston, with Tanner Houck (2.54 ERA) and Kutter Crawford (3.04 ERA) leading the way. The Red Sox have also been fairly consistent in the middle and back end of their rotation, although they could use Brayan Bello to be more consistent.

The bigger question is whether Boston will get enough offense to keep their recent surge going. There is reason to be optimistic. They’re seventh in the American League in runs scored, yet rank in the top five for every major individual category—OBP, slugging, batting average, doubles, and home runs. One would think that will show up in the bottom line. They’ll also get first baseman Triston Casas back in August. Masataka Yoshida, who also missed substantial time, has bad numbers at first glance, but is starting to pick up steam.

Tampa Bay
At this writing, the Rays are 5 ½ out of the last wild-card spot, so you can’t write them off. And you can certainly hope that Yandy Diaz and Randy Arozarena, both having bad years, might return to form over the last two months. But it’s hard to see where bad starting pitching is going to get better. This is also an organization with a history of doing more selling than buying at the trade deadline. We can’t write them off, but we need to see something if we’re going to put the Rays on our late summer radar.

Toronto
There is no team in baseball more disappointing than the Blue Jays, 44-53 and 9 ½ out of the playoffs on July 20. I’m not sure how manager John Schneider is still employed after this underachievement. Vladdy Guerrero has been decent–.358/.461 stat line and 15 homers, but even for him that’s not great. And everyone else has been bad by any measurement, most notably shortstop Bo Bichette. The biggest disappointments in the rotation would be Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios, both with ERAs in the 4s. Toronto has the talent and is simply not getting it done.