MLB: AL Central July Check-In
The Cleveland Guardians continue to set the pace in the AL Central and have a good shot at the #1 seed overall in the American League playoffs. But the Minnesota Twins, the defending division champs and preseason favorite, are chipping away and still in striking distance. The Kansas City Royals have slipped off the pace for the division crown, but are still a prime wild-card contender. No one really has their eye on the Detroit Tigers, but the standings say they aren’t dead yet. Here’s our July check-in on these four teams, along with the utterly hapless Chicago White Sox.
Cleveland
The best bullpen in the American League is the biggest standout on a team that has nice overall balance. Emmauel Clase, with 29 saves and a 0.81 ERA, has now been this league’s elite closer for a few years. Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herr and Cade Smith round out a pen that is deep. Offensively, Steven Kwan is having a career year. Always a good contact hitter, Kwan his hitting .354, and his on-base percentage is .412. He’s also slugging .512. Kwan has been the star of an offense where David Fry is hitting well, and Josh Naylor has gone deep 22 times.
Third baseman Jose Ramirez has 23 homers of his own and is slugging .517. Ramirez has an uncharacteristically pedestrian OBP at .326. If you’re Cleveland, this is a good sign—you already have the AL’s fourth-best offense, and your perennial star is actually underperforming. Another player to keep an eye on is 22-year-old utility man Angel Martinez, who has swung the bat well in very limited playing time. What the Guardians really need though, is starting pitching. There’s no ace and multiple weak spots.
Minnesota
Carlos Correa has led the way for an offense that has seen the whole be better than the sum of its parts. Correa has a stat line of .377 on-base percentage/.520 slugging percentage. Minnesota has had to deal with some bad luck at third base. Royce Lewis has been injured much of the year and is again dealing with nagging injuries. When he’s gotten on the field, Lewis has been fantastic–.354/.685 stat line. He was ably filled in for by Jose Miranda (.366/.522), but Miranda is also hurt. In spite of it all, and in spite of not having anything else really notable, the Twins still have the league’s third-most productive attack.
Minnesota pitching is similar to Cleveland’s—heavily reliant on the bullpen. A staff that ranks 10th in the American League for composite ERA is still third in relievers’ ERA. That tells you the starters are getting knocked around. No one in the rotation has an ERA under 3.50. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober haven’t been awful, but they can be better. It’s also worth keeping an eye on 23-year-old Simeon Woods-Richardson, who has a 3.51 ERA in 16 starts. If the Twins get some improvement from their starting pitching and stabilize the third base spot, they can tighten this race in a hurry.
Kansas City
Royal pitching is the complete opposite of the two rivals they’re chasing. Kansas City has an excellent starting rotation, with Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Brady Singer, and Michael Wacha all pitching well. But the bullpen is a bad as a whole. There aren’t even any good individual arms to build on. In another era, a staff could be structured like this and compete. Not in today’s game, with the need for at least a couple relievers to be going every night.
K.C. is getting a big year from a rising star in Bobby Witt Jr. The shortstop’s stat line is .375/.569, and he does it the old-fashioned way—by making contact. Witt is batting .328. And the old pro, 34-year-old catcher Salvador Perez is batting .280 with 17 homers. I like the Royals—they need another bat or two, and they definitely need to add some bullpen help. The next week and a half leading up to the trade deadline will tell us how serious the organization is about winning this year. You’d hate to see a starting rotation like that not be capitalized on.
Detroit
Speaking of interesting starting rotations, I like what the Tigers have going on with Tarik Skubal (19 starts, 2.41 ERA), leading up a staff that includes Reese Olson and Jack Flaherty, both with ERAs in the low 3s. The bullpen doesn’t have any standouts, but nor are there obvious holes. If Detroit could get some offense going, they could move right into the wild-card hunt. But with the exception of Riley Greene (.363/.500, 17 homers), the lineup looks terrible, with awful years from Javier Baez and Gio Urshela on the left side of the infield the most notable culprits.
Chi Sox
The baseball world is watching the South Side to see where Luis Roberts. Jr. gets traded too. The centerfielder isn’t having a huge year (.311/.482), but he was excellent last year, he’s only 26, and he’s under contract through 2025. In this lost year for the White Sox, let’s give credit to starting pitchers Erick Fedde (2.99 ERA) and Garrett Crochet (3.02 ERA) for their good work amidst the ruins.