College Football Notebook: Semifinal Preview

The College Football Playoff swings back into action with semifinal action the next two nights:

Thursday, January 9
Penn State – Notre Dame (7:30 PM ET, ESPN) Orange Bowl, Miami

Friday, January 10
Texas – Ohio State (7:30 PM ET, ESPN) Cotton Bowl, Dallas

Here’s our preview of both games. The point spread and Over/Under is noted in parentheses next to the favorite:

Penn State – Notre Dame (-1.5, 45.5)
The Nittany Lions and the Fighting Irish are very similar teams. They each play good defense. They each have two good running backs. The differences lie in the comparative strengths and weaknesses of their passing game. Penn State’s Drew Allar is more of a threat to throw the ball down the field than is Notre Dame’s Riley Leonard. Allar also has the best target on the field in All-American tight end Tyler Warren. But Leonard is a better runner, and has played more consistent, mistake-free football over the course of the season.

The Penn State Scenario: The Lions play a lot of two tight-end packages on offense, meaning they will be a more physical running team than the Irish are accustomed to seeing. If that can create some space for Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton to run, it in turn opens up the passing game for Allar, Warren and perhaps the wideouts that Penn State does not typically rely on.

Defensively, the Lions can hope to simply play as well against Notre Dame as Georgia in the quarterfinals. The margin of victory in the Irish’s 23-10 win came on an easy touchdown set up by a turnover and a kickoff return. The Notre Dame offense did not drive the field for a touchdown against the Bulldogs. Penn State’s defense, with a terrific playmaker in Abdul Carter—expected to play after an injury—need only approximate Georgia’s performance, while avoiding its mistakes.

It’s further worth noting that while Leonard generally does a great job in avoiding the big mistake, the same was true for Boise’s Maddux Madsen—until Penn State put him in uncomfortable spots and got three interceptions.

The Notre Dame Scenario: As good and disruptive as the Nittany Lion defense can be, they have a serious flaw—tackling. Even in stopping Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty, the Bronco running back actually did pretty well after contact. But Penn State’s dominance of the line of scrimmage was too much to overcome. It’s unlikely they can dominate the Notre Dame front five the same way. Running backs Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price, along with Leonard, are tough to bring down in any case.

Missed tackles could see a lot of moved chains for the Irish offense. That lets Leonard do what he does best—make just enough back-breaking short throws in tight situations—to keep Notre Dame in control.

Marcus Freeman’s defense matches up with Warren as well as anyone. Strong safety Ashton Shuler is a great cover man. Whether anyone can contain the Lion tight end one-on-one remains to be seen, but Shuler has as good a shot as any strong safety in the country. If he can hold up and simply contain Warren, it allows free safety Xavier Watts to play centerfield. Watts is a playmaker, and Allar has been known to make some mistakes. The play of the safeties—and dominance of the corners against PSU’s overmatched receivers, allow the Irish linebackers to lean forward and focus on the run.

Texas – Ohio State (-6, 53.5)
These are the top two defenses in the country, at least when measured by points allowed (and, quite honestly, I’m not sure what other metric there would be). Which makes it interesting that betting markets seem to be expecting a higher-scoring game—the combination of that point spread and total would add up to a 30-24 win for Ohio State. Neither defense has any notable weaknesses, so this comes down to which offense you trust to get things opened up.

The Buckeyes’ dominant performances against Tennessee and Oregon have made observers understandably sympathetic to Ohio State, but let’s not forget, this is the same team that no-showed against Michigan and was held to 20 points by Penn State. So, before just summarily advancing the Buckeyes to the title game, let’s consider each side of the story.

The Texas Scenario: The inability of Texas to run the ball nearly ended their season against Arizona State. But that was without offensive tackle Cameron Williams, a likely first-round pick next spring. Williams is expected to play on Friday night, and he’s joined by another future first-rounder in Kelvin Banks Jr. on the other side. The goal of the Longhorns is for their tackles to get control of the edge, and then let Tre Wisner and Jaydon Blue either break it outside or use their physical styles to cut back inside and start gashing. Quarterback Quinn Ewers, who saved his team in the quarterfinals, is able to again hit some money throws.

The Ohio State Scenario: We’ve watched it unfold the first two rounds. Tennessee and Oregon each had genuinely outstanding cover personnel on the outside. And in both games, the Ohio State receivers—notably Jeremiah Smith—just did whatever they wanted. With quarterback Will Howard stretching the field and playing great football, the injuries on the offensive line haven’t mattered as much. The Buckeyes have adjusted to the injuries by using more finesse blocking schemes and counter plays, something that works better when you’ve got the defensive back seven on their heels. If Ohio State keeps the field stretched—even if they don’t do whatever they want, like in the first two rounds—that still allows for some room to run. It’s a further advantage for the Buckeyes that Howard, while imperfect, has been more consistent than Ewers over the course of the season.

Looking Ahead
The winners will go to Atlanta to play for the national championship on Monday, January 20. But between now and then, we have a lot of action in this space. We preview the NFL wild-card games on Friday. On Saturday, we’re back to recap these CFB semifinals. Then, on Tuesday, we recap the NFL wild-card round. Postseason football is coming at us non-stop!