College Football Notebook: Quarterfinal Preview

The New Year’s feast of college football begins tonight with the first quarterfinal game, followed by a tripleheader tomorrow. Here’s the rundown—game times, TV coverage, location, point spread and Over/Under, followed by the key things to watch.

Tuesday, 7:30 PM EST (Fiesta Bowl, ESPN) Boise State – Penn State (-11.5, 54)
Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty is the best in the country. He’s got the numbers statistically, and he also gets a lot of yards after contact. He is central to the Bronco passing game. The problem I see for Boise State is simple—I believe when a good defense, which is Penn State has, decides to go all-out and focus on stopping a good running back, they can do it. Therefore, how much help will Jeanty get, to prevent the Lions from an exclusive focus on him?

Maddux Madsen is a nice quarterback, efficient and careful with the football. But he’s not a field-stretcher, and Penn State’s secondary can handle the Boise receivers. The Bronco offensive line isn’t particularly strong—it speaks volumes to Jeanty’s skill that he’s carried the running game as far as he has. I think Boise is going to bog down, and if forced to the air, Madsen’s ability to be mistake-free will be severely tested.

Penn State’s offense is far from perfect, particularly when it comes to getting the ball outside. The Boise defense can prevent big plays and put their own focus on stopping the Lion running game. What Penn State has that Boise doesn’t is two backs to share the load, in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. They also have a terrific tight end in Tyler Warren that can keep the sticks moving.

I’m going with 30-17 win for Penn State. Boise can hang in there for a while, but the Lions eventually pull away.

Wednesday, 1 PM EST (Peach Bowl, ESPN) Texas – Arizona State (-12.5, 51)
We have another double-digit underdog that will depend heavily on on a do-everything running back—in this case Cam Skattebo—to go against a defense that is more physically talented on every level. Honestly, I don’t see any point in overanalyzing this side of the ball—if the Longhorns are focused, ready to play, and completely focused on Skattebo (and I don’t see why they wouldn’t be all of those things), I can’t see any way Arizona State moves the ball.

The issue for Texas will be whether or not they can open the game up. They should be able to run the ball, with Tre Wisner and Jaydon Blue. The are only two hopes for the Sun Devils—a complete meltdown by Quinn Ewers, which is unlikely, though not unthinkable. The other hope is more realistic—that Ewers misses some throws down the field, Texas can’t pull away, the favorite starts to tighten up and the underdog gains confidence.

It’s certainly possible, but the landscape of likely outcomes doesn’t look promising for Arizona State. I’ll pick a comfortable 34-13 win for Texas in what I see as the biggest mismatch of the quarterfinals.

Wednesday, 5 PM EST (Rose Bowl, ESPN) Ohio State (-2, 55.5) – Oregon
Oregon—the nation’s only unbeaten team and undisputed #1 seed—is the only higher seeded team to be an underdog thus far in the playoffs. The Buckeyes only lost to the Ducks by a point—32-31—on the road during the regular season. And this looks like a true heavyweight fight in the hallowed late afternoon time slot in Pasadena.

The biggest showdowns will come on the outside in the passing game. Both teams have exceptional wide receivers and solid coverage players. That sets up a combustible situation. We could see some offensive fireworks, and we could also some game-changing defensive plays that lead to points.

Where Oregon looks to have an advantage is in balancing out their passing game with a running attack. While both teams have good backs—Jordan James and Noah Whittington for the Ducks, and TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins for the Buckeyes—that can both run inside and out—the Ohio State offensive line has suffered key injuries down the stretch in the regular season. Even their impressive dismantling of Tennessee in the first round didn’t come with a ground attack–it was done by exploiting the Vols through the air. It’s certainly possible the Buckeyes could do that again here, but it will be more difficult.

Thus, in a potential battle of big plays, who do you trust more at quarterback—Dillon Gabriel for Oregon or Ohio State’s Will Howard? I’d lean Gabriel. And which team is more likely to take the burden off their quarterback with some running game balance? Again, I believe the answer is Oregon. I’m foreseeing an evenly played game, where the Ducks take better advantage of opportunities in the red zone. Let’s call this one Oregon, 31-20.

Wednesday, 8:45 PM EST (Sugar Bowl, ESPN) Notre Dame – Georgia (-1, 45.5)
Georgia will be playing with backup quarterback Gunnar Stockton. How much that matters remains to be seen, because the Bulldogs don’t rely on a downfield passing game to win. The Dawgs are looking to win with a defense that, while not what it was in the championship years of 2021-22, is still talented and well-coached. It looks like a terrific, an evenly matched showdown with a Notre Dame running game that is physical, and well-balanced, with Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price.

What to make of Irish quarterback Riley Leonard has been the question all year, and it’s the biggest question overshadowing this game. We know that Leonard plays mistake-free football—can he do continue to do that against a defense that will likely make him play at a faster rate then he has all season? We know his running ability leaves a conundrum for Georgia head coach Kirby Smart—do you blitz Leonard to try and force him off his efficient game, when he’s so good at taking off, especially against man-to-man coverage? And if given the time, can Leonard create some space for his running backs by hitting some throws the down the field?

I like Leonard, I like the Irish, and I believe they match up as well here is they have in any big national game for a long time. In the end, I’m still little skittish though, about how those season-long numbers will look against a physical and fast team from the SEC. That’s why I’m still going to lean Georgia in a tense, thriller, 24-21.

Happy New Year to all, and we’ll be back in this space on Thursday to recap the games.