College Football Notebook: Playoff Preview

The first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff bracket was announced this past Sunday. Here’s what’s ahead. First-round matchups are listed, followed by the team the winner will play in the second round.

(8)Ohio State – (9)Tennessee (1)Oregon
(5)Texas – (12)Clemson (4)Arizona State
(6)Penn State – (11)SMU (3)Boise State
(7)Notre Dame – (10Indiana (2)Georgia

First-round games will be at the homefield of the higher-seeded team on December 20-21. The quarterfinals will be on December 31-January 1 at the major bowl sites—Pasadena (Oregon), Atlanta (Arizona State), Glendale (Boise State), and New Orleans (Georgia). Miami and Dallas will host semifinal games on January 9-10. And the national title will be settled in Atlanta on Monday, January 20.

We plan to blog the entire postseason in this space, with previews and recaps of each round. Today, we’ll begin with a broad-based look at the entire field. The teams will be separated into three categories—the favorites, the dark horses, and the longshots, based on their betting odds to win the national championship.

The purpose here is to simply look at each team’s strengths and weaknesses and assess their chances of going on the sustained 3-4 game winning streak it will take to win the national championship. We’ll save breakdowns of specific matchups for later.

THE FAVORITES: Oregon, Georgia, Ohio State, Texas, Penn State

Oregon (+350)
The Ducks clearly deserve the 1-seed as the only unbeaten team in the nation, and with wins over Ohio State, Penn State, Boise State. Oregon has also beaten a good 9-win Illinois team and won at Michigan. Dillon Gabriel combines efficiency with big-play capability at quarterback. Jordan James is a 1,200-yard rusher and Noah Whittington gives the running game a change of pace. The Ducks can cause major problems defensively with the two pass-rushing ends, Matayo Ulagalelei and Jordan Burch.

That said, Oregon is not an overwhelming 1-seed. They rank 15th nationally in points scored and 13th in points allowed. Nice enough balance, but nothing elite. While the quality of opponents they’ve played factors into that, the final strength of schedule ranking (35th) is comparable or inferior to several other teams in the field.

In short, Oregon is certainly to be respected and probably the safest pick in the field. But the odds are probably about right—play this bracket out three or four times, and the Ducks only win once.

Georgia (+350)
Unlike their championship teams of 2021 and 2022, this edition of Georgia has nothing that jumps out at you. They aren’t great defensively (23rd in the country). While the running game has some nice balance with Nate Frazer and Trevor Etienne, neither one is explosive. There are no superstars defensively. Arian Smith is a big-play receiver but needs someone to get him the ball.

Which brings us to the quarterback situation. It looks like Carson Beck won’t make it back from the elbow injury he suffered in the SEC Championship Game. At least not for the quarterfinal game on New Year’s Day. But Beck could be mistake-prone and I’m not all that sold that the dropoff to Gunnar Stockton will be that serious. The bigger issue is whether either quarterback can give them the offensive juice they need to win a third national championship in four years.

The flip side is this—the Bulldogs have beaten more good teams than anyone else in the field. They beat Texas twice, including a decisive win in Austin. They beat Tennessee. They blew out Clemson. They lost a heartbreaker to Alabama, and then played their worst game against Ole Miss. Most programs with Georga’s statistical profile could be dismissed. But their pedigree—both over the last several years, and the games they ‘ve won this season mean they still need to be respected.

Ohio State (+400)
At noon on November 30, I turned on my television to watch Ohio State and Michigan, believing the Buckeyes were the best team in the country. Why not? They had the top-ranked scoring defense, a unit that had shut down both Indiana and Penn State, the latter on the road. The Buckeyes had a well-balanced running attack, with Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. They had a quarterback in Will Howard who completes over 70 percent of his passes and generates better than nine yards an attempt. Sure, he makes a few too many mistakes, but no one is perfect.

Moreover, Ohio State’s only loss had been a one-point defeat to Oregon on the road. All that was left was for the Buckeyes to beat Michigan, go to the Big Ten Championship Game, get a second chance at the Ducks on a neutral field where Ohio State would surely win. And they would be the 1-seed and the clear favorite.

Then I watched the Buckeyes deliver a singularly awful and uninspired performance against their hated rival on November 30. Under the old system, it would have ended their championship hopes and perhaps gotten Ryan Day fired. It still might do the latter. But for me it underscores the bigger question about Ohio State—do you trust them? They have the talent, and they’ve demonstrated it more than once. But can a team who would play like that against their biggest rival be counted on to rip through four high-quality opponents in a month?

Texas (+450)
It starts with defense in Austin, where the Longhorns trail only Ohio State in terms of points allowed per game. The pass-rushing work of Colin Simmons and Anthony Hall up front is the disruptive force, and Texas is just generally a very physical team on both sides of the ball. They run with Tre Wisner and Jaydon Blue. The passing game is old-school, with tight end Gunnar Helm being the leading receiver, and Blue frequently targeted out of the backfield. Texas’ physicality was on display in their regular season finale, when they went to College Station and beat up on a good Texas A&M team. The 17-7 final didn’t reflect how thoroughly the ‘Horns controlled the Aggies.

Where Texas has had problems is making big plays. Quinn Ewers’ gets 7.6 yards-per-attempt, a figure that’s pretty good in the NFL, but less so in the more wide-open, less parity-driven world of college football. Ewers’ 2.6 interception rate is high. It’s comparable to other quarterbacks in this field but given that Ewers has the advantage of a great defense, a solid running game and a controlling passing attack, he should be expected to be a little cleaner. How well he puts it all together will decide Texas’ fate.

Both the Longhorns and head coach Steve Sarkisian have long had the reputation for having talented, explosive lineups, but that struggled with consistency. Over the last couple of years, Texas has evolved into something that’s more physical, more consistent, but with question marks about whether they are explosive enough to beat the best teams. Essentially, they’ve become what Wisconsin used to be. Am I the only one who notices that this transformation has taken place over a two-year period where former Badger boss Paul Chryst has been a consultant in Austin? Whatever question marks linger, Texas is better off now than they were two years ago. If they win it all, ‘Horns fans can send you a thank-you note to trigger-happy Wisconsin A.D. Chris McIntosh.

Penn State (+650)
Penn State’s profile is fundamentally the same as Ohio State and Texas. The Lions play really good defense, ranking eighth nationally. That defense is led by a disruptive force in linebacker Abdul Carter, who has 10 sacks and 20 tackles-for-loss. They have a solid running game tandem, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. The passing game is geared heavily towards the tight end, in this case Tyler Warren and his 88 catches.

But can they get consistent enough play at quarterback? Drew Allar’s 69 percent completion rate and 8.9 yards-per-attempt are solid. It’s the 2.2 interception rate, with seven picks on the year, that raise the concern. Furthermore, Allar’s offense did not produce in the biggest regular season game, the 20-13 home loss to Ohio State. Penn State’s 21-7 home win over Illinois, while not to be dismissed, was not the work of dominance.

Coming into last weekend, I was comfortable with considering Penn State a second-tier team that would play well defensively but say goodbye by the quarterfinals or semifinals. Then they went and dropped 37 points on Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game. Yes, they still lost, but the Lions hung in pretty well. Then the bracket came out. While we’re not going into specifics, Penn State has a very favorable path to at least reach the national championship game. They are a top-tier contender and in a season with no clear favorite, that (+650) price seems pretty enticing.

THE DARK HORSES: Notre Dame, Tennessee

Notre Dame (+1100)
The Irish rank fourth nationally in points scored and third in points allowed. That combination is the best of any team in the field. What’s more, their strength of schedule (31st) is tied for fourth in this field. That most basic of premises—they score points, they don’t give them up, and they’ve done it against a reasonable level of competition—is what gives the Notre Dame faithful hope.

Jeremiyah Love ran for 949 yards and did it with an eye-popping 7.1 yards-per-attempt. When the Irish turn to Jadarian Price for a change of pace, they don’t exactly lose anything—Price still goes for better than seven a pop. Defensively, Xavier Watts is a big-play man in the secondary.

Riley Leonard is a versatile, dual-threat quarterback who plays mistake-free. Will that be enough? Or will Leonard have to make big throws down the field? The answer to that question is, quite obviously, yes—at least if we’re talking about winning the whole thing. Your confidence level in Leonard to do that is directly correlated to your confidence in Notre Dame’s chances.

Tennessee (+2500)
I’m probably cheating by putting the Vols in this category—as you’ll see, their odds are closer to the longshots than they are to Notre Dame. I have to think that has more to do with the brutal draw Tennessee got—needing to win in Columbus, and then go play Oregon. Because if you just look at the Vols’ resume and statistical profile, they are an entirely legitimate dark horse contender.

Tennessee  quarterback Nico Iamaleava has solid overall numbers—66 percent completion rate, 8.3 yards-per-attempt, and a 1.7 percent interception rate. He spreads the ball around well, so you can’t take away any one particular receiver. The Vols have an outstanding runner in Dylan Sampson, who nearly reached the 1,500-yard threshold. They have a pass-rusher in James Pearce Jr. and a playmaker in the secondary in Jermod McCoy.

And if you pull the camera back and look at the big picture, Tennessee’s national ranks are 10th for scoring, 5th for defense, and they beat Alabama head-to-head. The bracket draw is a big problem, but if the way this worked was to have all 12 teams play a home-and-home against each other, the Vols would be a legitimate threat to win it. The gap between quality and betting odds is the highest with Tennessee.

THE LONGSHOTS: SMU, Clemson, Arizona State, Indiana, Boise State

SMU (+3000)
The sixth-most proficient offense in the country is what fuels hope for the Mustangs. Brashard Smith gives them a solid running game and also catches the ball out of the backfield. Kevin Jennings, like many other QBs in this field, can be a little mistake-prone, but he does everything else well. Keyshawn Smith can stretch the field at receiver. Had SMU not spent the first quarter of the ACC Championship Game making nervous mistakes, they would have won that game and not had to sweat out the final bracket reveal.

But they fact the Mustangs did make all those nervous mistakes begs the question of whether that was a one-off or if the nerves will continue to show themselves. It’s not like the games are going to get less stressful. Is the defense, which ranks 28th, good enough to make a sustained run? SMU lost their two most notable games, to BYU and then Clemson in the league title game. Wins at Louisville and at Duke were nice, but there’s nothing to suggest SMU is a sleeping giant.

Clemson (+3000)
Cade Klubnik is coming into his own. The junior quarterback plays very efficient football, and also ran for over 450 yards. Bryant Wesco is the receiver who can help him stretch the field, and the receiving corps generally is well-balanced. Phil Mafah is a 1,000-yard rusher. Dabo Swinney has more than proven himself as a big coach.

But Clemson got hammered by Georgia to start the season and lost to South Carolina to end it. The Tigers mixed in a loss to Louisville in the middle. They were outplayed the final 2 ½ quarters of the ACC Championship Game by SMU, with only the aforementioned Mustang mistakes getting Clemson into the field. This program’s pedigree gets them respect, but they really have done nothing all year to suggest they can compete with the nation’s elite.

Arizona State (+4000)
The Sun Devils are playing their best football as they go into the playoffs. Starting in mid-November, they beat fellow Big 12 contenders in Kansas State, BYU, and Iowa State—the latter a thorough demolition in the conference championship game. Cameron Skattebo is a 1,500-yard rusher who gets six yards a pop and has also caught 37 balls. Sam Leavitt can be a little erratic at quarterback, but he makes big plays and doesn’t throw it to the other team.

That said, the Big 12 Championship Game is the only time I’ve watched the Sun Devils this year, so the optimism I feel towards their chances could be rooted in just happening to see their best game. Beating Big 12 contenders might not translate into competing well against national contenders. Arizona State is still a team that lost two games against a schedule that only ranked 54th.

Indiana (+4500)
No quarterback in this field has a better overall statistical resume that Kurtis O’Rourke. You want efficiency—how about a 70 percent completion rate. You need big plays? Can I interest you in a dazzling 9.9 yards-per-attempt, with Elijah Sarrat being the prime downfield target? You need to play it safe? How about just four interceptions all year and a meager 1.4 percent interception rate? And if you look at IU as a team, their offense ranks second nationally in points scored, while the defense is a solid seventh.

But you probably already know the question—against whom? Indiana’s schedule ranks 69th. While they were some nice wins, notably against Michigan, the Hoosiers’ first attempt to step up in class against Ohio State went poorly. Indiana football is a great story—perhaps the best story in the country this year—but we’ve arrived at the cruel place in sports where so many such stories go to die.

Boise State (+5000)
Boise State only lost to Oregon 37-34, and yet somehow, they have the worst odds in the field? Such is the lack of respect given to teams outside the Power 4 conferences. Ashton Jeanty is the best running back in America, coming just a hair short of 2,500 yards and doing it at 7.3 yards-per attempt. Maddux Madsen isn’t a perfect quarterback—but he’s only thrown three interceptions. Boise State faced their best competition in the Mountain West—UNLV—twice and won both times. On defense, they have playmakers up front with Jayden Virgin and Ahmad Hassanein. Safety Sayi Oladipo is a major disruptor in the mold of former Pittsburgh Steelers’ legend Troy Polamalu.

Thus, the Broncos have done everything they can—they’ve tested themselves against the best the Power 4 has to offer and acquitted themselves. They played consistently throughout the year. Now, like Hickory High School, in the classic basketball movie Hoosiers, they have to show they can do it for all the small schools who never got this chance.

CLOSING THOUGHTS

Let’s play a little game. You have a $1,000 in your pocket, but you must use it all to wager on these odds to win the national championship. How do you manage your money? Do you roll the dice and put it all on one team you believe in? Or do you spread it out? Here’s what I would do (and just as  warning to those who might be doing it for real, I never win anything):

*I’d choose Oregon as my hedge and put one-third of the bankroll on the Ducks. My strategy is to structure it so that if a favorite wins, I can break even. I like Oregon more than Georgia as a hedge.

*I then split the rest of the bankroll between Penn State and Tennessee. I might put a little more of what’s left on the Lions, because if you combine value on the odds with actual chance to win, I think Penn State is the best bet in the field. But that 25-1 price tag on the Vols deserves at least a little action.

Anyway, those are my thoughts. The first game is Friday, December 20, when Indiana goes to Notre Dame, followed by a tripleheader on Saturday. We will be back shortly before then to preview the first round.