College Football Notebook: Championship Game Preview

The preview of a championship game is usually the easiest one to write. We’ve done the research on season-long numbers. We’ve watched three games of postseason play. There’s no mystery as to who teams are by the time we reach the end of the line. So, let’s dive into what we know about Ohio State and Notre Dame as they meet in Atlanta tonight for the national championship (7:30 PM ET, ESPN).

Ohio State is a healthy eight-point favorite, having blown out Tennessee and Oregon, and then knocked off Texas. The Buckeyes have defined themselves in these playoffs by their ability to make big plays in the passing game. They did it against pass defenses, in Oregon and Texas, that had a great reputation coming in. The pedigree of Notre Dame’s pass defense is no less stellar.

But the Irish pass coverage plan will likely be different. Marcus Freeman’s secondary has found success by playing a lot of aggressive man coverage. Texas, by contrast, played a lot of zone. And while it would be a stretch to say the Longhorns stopped the Buckeye passing game, Ohio State was forced to play at a more controlled tempo, and it kept that game close.

If Notre Dame sticks to its tendencies, it could be boom or bust—some big throws down the field that blow it open for Ohio State…or the first real disruption that Buckeye quarterback Will Howard and his receivers have seen in the playoffs.

The other big showdown is the Irish effort to run the ball. Notre Dame comes at you with two good backs, Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Quarterback Riley Leonard is dangerous if he gets outside the pocket and runs. And he’s tough to bring down when he runs between the tackles. Throughout the postseason, Leonard has moved the chains by making sneaky moves after first contact to get that extra yard or two. Notre Dame has had success against good rush defenses from Georgia and Penn State. But Ohio State’s is even better.

Notre Dame simply must run the ball, because there is absolutely no evidence that the Irish can win if Leonard is forced to make big plays through the air. Obviously, anything is possible in a one-game shot. And the Irish may have some edges on the outside—the Buckeye pass defense is a little soft on throws against the corners. But that’s a very narrow edge, and it blows up quickly if Leonard can’t be protected. If you offer Ryan Day a scenario that put his pass defense against Leonard in a battle to decide the game, I’m sure he’d take it.

When it comes to running the ball, the Buckeyes are a curious tale. In spite of how well they’ve played offensively, they haven’t run the ball consistently yet in the playoffs. There have been a handful of breakaway runs after the deep passing game has opened things up, but nothing that represents any kind of vintage power. Can they really win four straight games against the nation’s best without doing so? The struggles in the running game are no coincidence—they started after the offensive line started to get hit with injuries and have been covered by Howard and the receivers thus far. If you offer a Freeman a scenario that puts his excellent front seven against the Ohio State rushing attack in a battle to decide the game, I’m sure he’d take it.

Each team has realistic scenarios to win this game. If I had to pick, I’d lean Ohio State simply on the grounds that their roster has more raw talent up and down the lineup, and they are therefore more likely to be the team that makes the game-breaking plays. But Notre Dame, eight-point dog or not, has plenty of ways to win.