College Football Notebook: 1st Round Preview

History gets made this weekend, with four on-campus games to open the first edition of the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket. We have one game tonight, followed by a Saturday tripleheader. Below is each matchup, the point spread, Over/Under and TV listings, followed by our preview.

Indiana at Notre Dame (-6.5, 52) (Friday, 8 PM ET, ABC/ESPN)
The focus will be on Irish quarterback Riley Leonard. He’s a good runner, and an accurate, mistake-free passer. But can he make plays down the field, while still avoiding mistakes? This is the question not just for this game, but for Notre Dame’s prospects this entire postseason. For Friday night specifically, it’s not just about Leonard, but his pass protection. Indiana has a good pass rush. Getting the Irish behind schedule and then turning that pressure loose is their formula for an upset.

The Hoosiers will have their own pass protection challenges against a good Irish defense. If Indiana can keep Kurtis O’Rourke clean in the pocket, he has a diverse receiving corps and makes big plays as well as any quarterback in the country. What is lingering over Indiana, however, is the fact Ohio State was able to completely shut down O’Rourke. While the Irish defense isn’t as good as the Buckeyes, it’s not that far behind.

Indiana has a reasonable path to pull an upset, and smart money obviously likes their chances—that point spread above has been bet down from the (-8.5) it opened as. They need to contain Notre Dame’s ground game and protect their own quarterback. It’s doable. But the Irish have more ways to win. A controlled game works to their favor, and there’s nothing saying Leonard can’t step up if he has to make some big throws. Our pick here is Notre Dame, 27-17.

SMU at Penn State (-9, 51.5) (Saturday, Noon, TNT)
Can Penn State move the ball? They rely heavily on the running game, and the Mustang defensive front is good. Moreover, the Nittany Lion passing game is built around throwing to tight end Tyler Warren. As good as Warren is—the best in the country—the problems Penn State has in opening things up with the wide receivers mean that SMU can try and get comfortable stacking the box.

The Mustangs, however, have their own problems. This Lion defense is excellent and has played well against everyone except Oregon. There will be a lot of pressure on SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings to improvise and do things on his own. I liked what I saw of Jennings in the ACC Championship Game, but putting that kind of burden on a quarterback going on the road, in the cold, against a good defense, is an invitation for mistakes.

There’s also a lot of pressure on Penn State coach James Franklin. He’s clearly a consistent winner, but just as clearly has failed every time he’s had an opportunity to step up in class against the best teams. With only SMU and Boise State standing between him and the semifinals, Franklin simply must win this game at home. I think he will. It will be defense-oriented, but the Lions advance with a 24-13 win.

Clemson at Texas (-12, 51.5) (Saturday, 4 PM ET, TNT)
Clemson is the biggest underdog of the weekend, a situation that’s only gotten worse since early money (which tends to be smarter than whatever gets wagered between now and kickoff) flowed in on Texas, bumping this line up from a (-10) opener. It’s an interesting dynamic, because you can make a strong argument that the coach/QB combo of Dabo Swinney and Cade Klubnik is the best of the eight teams playing this weekend—perhaps even the best in the entire field.

Klubnik, now a junior, has finally shown what all the hype was when he came out of college as the heir to a recent program tradition that had DeShaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence each win national championships. He’s accurate, he’s clean, he makes plays down the field, and he can do it with his legs. But can he do it all by himself?

Texas is better—substantially better—everywhere else on the field besides quarterback. They can pressure Klubnik, lock up his receivers, and deny him any running game support. Offensively, the Longhorns have a physical running game. And while their own passing attack has been spotty, they have a decided advantage in the battle between their receivers and the Tiger corners.

Even giving Dabo all the credit in the world, and even acknowledging how far Klubnik has come, this is a mismatch. Texas takes it 26-10.

Tennessee at Ohio State (-7.5, 46) (Saturday, 8 PM ET, ABC/ESPN)
I’m surprised by how strong a favorite the Buckeyes are, and even more surprised, that the line has actually nudged up a half-point since opening at an even (-7). For obvious reasons, line movement that goes past the number seven takes significant money, even for a half-point, so clearly some smart people like Ohio State.

I understand why. Their defense is as good as any in the field. The Buckeyes have a terrific group of receivers. They have good running backs. And whatever criticism one wants to make of head coach Ryan Day, if he’s not playing Michigan, he’s pretty good.

But Ohio State has some serious injury problems on the offensive line. Will Howard is a respectable quarterback, but we saw in the Michigan game what can happen if too much of a burden gets placed on him. He’s fine as a game manager, but that presumes there’s something to manage. Tennessee has really good edge rushers and good overall athleticism on defense.

Moreover, the Vols have a quarterback who is playing well in Nico Imaleava. Tennessee has an advantage when throwing the ball to the outside and down the field. They can make big plays.

This is a tough game to pick, because it involves so much psychological speculation on where Ohio State’s head is at. I’m leaning negative on that. I also believe this round of the playoffs is going to be like the NFL Divisional Round, where the most common outcome is one road team winning. In this first year of the new CFB, I’ll pick the Vols to be the road warriors—and comfortably, at 31-20.

Everyone enjoy the games! We also have an NFL doubleheader mixed in on Saturday (Texans-Chiefs, Steelers-Ravens), so the last weekend before Christmas has a lot of great football under the tree. We’ll be back in this space sometime on Sunday with a recap of these four games.