NFL Notebook: AFC West Preview

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Is there any division more interesting than the AFC West? We’ve got the defending champs, as the Kansas City Chiefs aim for a historic three-peat. Jim Harbaugh is now here, with the Los Angeles Chargers. Sean Payton’s in his second season with the Denver Broncos. And the Las Vegas Raiders played well down the stretch last year. Here’s a snapshot look at all four teams:

Kansas City
While Patrick Mahomes is naturally where conversations begin and end with the Chiefs, it is worth noting that the offense as a whole was mediocre last year, ranking 15^th in the NFL for points scored. K.C. has question marks at receiver, and at both offensive tackle spots. They’re relying on rookie receiver Xavier Worthy to make a fast impact and give the passing game a little downfield juice. Travis Kelce’s yards-per-catch was at 10.6 last year. While that’s not bad for a tight end, we’ve seen Kelce get YPC’s close to big-play receiver levels. It suggests that opposing secondaries are getting comfortable being up close. Someone needs to stretch the field.

Kansas City’s defense was the second-stingiest unit in the league last year thanks to star power in some select spots. Chris Jones at defensive tackle, Leo Chenal at linebacker and Trent McDuffie at one of the corner spots. Moreover, there’s no obvious weak point. The combination of select star power, combined with great coaching is the formula for the Chief defense, and really, for the team as a whole. That can lead to some losses during the long regular season, but star power often matters more than depth in the playoffs.

LA Chargers
Harbaugh is tasked with getting the career of Justin Herbert back on track. Herbert, seen as a rising star, turned in game-manager stats last year for a team that had way too many flaws to overcome that. Given Harbaugh’s track record with Stanford, the 49ers, and most recently Michigan, we have to expect he’ll get a physical running game going as soon as possible. His offensive line isn’t great, but it has enough promise to build around and rookie Joe Alt was added at left tackle in the draft. There’s a lot of change at the skill positions, as the Chargers said goodbye to Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen.

The Bolts’ defense is going to rely on pressure from the edges, where Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack are at outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme. The one problem with bringing constant heat though, is you need to be able to cover man-to-man on the corners to make it effective. That’s a lot of pressure on young Asante Sameul Jr. and the mediocre Kristian Fulton. The Charger defense looks like a major rebuilding project.

Las Vegas
Antonio Pierce took over as interim coach last year after a 3-5 start, and won five of the final nine games. That included an impressive Christmas Day dismantling of Kansas City on the road. The Raiders did it with the league’s ninth-best defense. That D is built around two excellent ends in Maxx Crosby and Malcolm Koonce. While the back seven doesn’t have stars, the only weak spot is corner Jakorian Bennett. Vegas should play some decent D again in 2024.

An offense that ranked 23^rd made major changes at the skill spots. Gardner Minshew, fresh off a Pro Bowl year in Indianapolis, is in as the new quarterback. Josh Jacobs, two years removed from the rushing title, is off to Green Bay. Las Vegas will be looking for some new playmakers to join veteran wide receiver Davante Adams. Minshew is more of a game manager, so the development of the new players, including rookie tight end Brock Bowers will matter a lot. The same goes for the interior of the line. While the tackle spots look good, it’s imperative rookie guard Jackson Powers-Johnson get up to speed quickly, or defenses are going to be able to get in Minshew’s face through the middle.

Denver
Sean Payton won eight games in his first season, despite a strained relationship with veteran quarterback Russell Wilson. Wilson has gone to Pittsburgh and rookie Bo Nix is being thrown into the fire right away. I don’t see a ton of reason to be optimistic that we’ll see immediate results. The offensive line is okay, but not great and the playmakers are substandard.

Defensively, there are no real issues, but nor are there any standout areas. Coordinator Vance Joseph can turn this into a respectable unit, but when you have a rookie quarterback and a generally questionable offense, you’d like the defense to actually make some game-changing plays. Sitting here in August, I’m not seeing where the Broncos can do that.

Preliminary Conclusion
The betting markets see this division pretty clear—Kansas City, LAC, Las Vegas, and Denver, in that order, and not particularly close. I’ll mostly buy that, but with the caveat that I can see the Raiders getting to second, and it frankly wouldn’t shock me if Las Vegas makes a run at K.C. for the division crown. The Raiders, with an Over/Under win total of just 5.5 look like one of the most underrated teams on the board. That said, the NFL world belongs to Patrick Mahomes right now. While the Chiefs have flaws, this is their division.