NFL Notebook: AFC South Preview

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Last year, the AFC South didn’t have a great team, but they did produce an exciting three-team race to the finish. Houston and Indianapolis played a prime-time game in Week 18 for the division title, with the Texans winning. And Jacksonville shockingly found themselves without a seat at the playoff table. Our preseason division tour looks at the Texas, Colts, and Jaguars, along with the Tennessee Titans.

HOUSTON
C.J. Stroud won Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2023, throwing forover 4,100 yards and averaging a healthy 8.2 yards-per-attempt. The Texans went out and got some new weapons—notably signing Stefon Diggs to join Nico Collins at wide receiver. Houston also addressed the running game in signing Joe Mixon. Where Houston has serious problems though, is up front. They’re stable at left tackle with Laremy Tunsil, and Shaq Mason at right guard is at least respectable. But there are significant holes elsewhere.

Head coach DeMeco Ryans made his reputation on the defensive side of the ball as a coordinator in San Francisco, and this unit looks good. The Texans are solid at defensive end, with Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter able to pressure the quarterback from both sides. Derek Stingley is a good corner. There are no serious weaknesses anywhere in the lineup, and rookie corner Kamarri Lassiter out of Georgia will get an immediate opportunity to start.

JACKSONVILLE
The Jaguars failure to build off an AFC South title and Divisional Round appearance in 2022 was a major shock, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence was emblematic of that. Like the team, Lawrence wasn’t bad, but he never really found his rhythm, as he dealt with a series of injuries. Lawrence’s old teammate from Clemson, running back Travis Etienne, ran for 1,000 yards, but at the cost of just 3.8 yards-per-carry. Jacksonville’s offensive hopes basically rest on the premise—an entirely reasonable one—that a healthy Lawrence will be a more productive Lawrence.

Defensive underperformance was another big issue, as the Jags ranked just 17^th in the league in points allowed. That led to changes on the defensive staff. This does look like a unit that is capable of more. Josh-Hines Allen keys a respectable defensive line, and while the back seven isn’t great, it’s at least manageable—Jacksonville should expect at least a modest uptick on D this year.

INDIANAPOLIS
Indy’s push to the final week of the season last year came in spite of a quarterback change. First-round pick Anthony Richardson was injured early on, and Gardner Minshew took over. Richardson is back at the top of the depth chart this year, but he’s still an unproven commodity. How much rope will head coach Shane Steichen give him? Particularly given that the component parts of the Colt offense are pretty good. Jonathan Taylor is healthy again and runs behind an offensive line that’s well-balanced across. Michael Pittman is reliable at receiver. Minshew is with the Raiders now, but Indy signed Joe Flacco as veteran insurance.

The 28th-ranked defense in the league is ultimately the reason the Colts came up short of the playoffs. There’s reason for optimism here. DeForest Buckner keys what should be a good defensive front, and the secondary looks pretty good. While linebacker play may be spotty, there’s no reason for Indianapolis to be a sieve on this side of the ball.

TENNEESSE
It’s a new era in Nashville, with Mike Vrabel gone as the head coach and Brian Callahan in. Unless Callahan can turn Will Levis into a legitimate NFL quarterback, there’s not a lot of reason for hope. There is no depth at the position. The Titans do have good receivers, with DeAndre Hopkins now joined by free-agent signees Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd. Tennessee also signed Tony Pollard for the running game. But there are major problems at both tackles, and while I don’t believe football is all about the quarterback, there does have to be at least a minimal level of competence. I don’t see that right now.

Nor is there any reason to think the defense can carry the Titans. This unit isn’t bad, ranking middle of the league last year in points allowed. But there’s nothing that jumps off the page. Every year, there’s a handful of teams that are just stuck in Quarterback Purgatory, and nothing is going to change until that gets resolved. Tennessee is just such a team.

PRELIMINARY CONCLUSION
Betting markets see a reprise of last season, with a three-team race that has no real Super Bowl contender, but is exciting, nonetheless. Houston is a narrow (+105) favorite. In spite of last year, I tend to see Jacksonville as the default pick, especially now that Lawrence is healthy. I’m looking for the Jags to get to 10-11 wins and bring this one home, with the Texans competitive. I have my doubts about Indianapolis, and those doubts are directly related to Richardson. I think his injury last year might have been a blessing in disguise.