NFL Notebook: AFC North Preview
Everyone in the AFC North finished with a winning record last year. Three teams made the playoffs, and Baltimore was the regular season’s best team before falling to Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game. Here’s a snapshot look at this exciting division:
Baltimore
The Ravens upgraded their running game by bringing in Derrick Henry. With his physical running and ability to break tackles, Henry is less dependent on the offensive line than most other running backs. The same goes for MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson, and his ability to scramble away from pressure. All of which is to say the Ravens are well-suited to deal with an offensive front that is a little young at key spots.
If the offensive line doesn’t sink Baltimore, it’s hard to see what else will. The defense was the NFL’s best a year ago. While coordinator Mike Macdonald departed for the head coaching job in Seattle, the Ravens are a still a franchise with a culture of successful D. There are no weaknesses anywhere in the unit and they used their first-round draft pick on corner Nate Wiggins. With Jackson, Henry and an elite defense, the Ravens will be a Super Bowl contender again.
Cleveland
The Browns overcome a lot of adversity to have a breakthrough year in 2023, as they went 11-6 and made the playoffs. Cleveland had to go through several quarterbacks, and running back Nick Chubb was injured early in the year. Chubb is back and Deshaun Watson is healthy. Amari Cooper is a field-stretching receiver and David Njoku a talented tight end. The Browns managed to have the 10th-best offense in the league a year ago even with their injury problems. If they can stay healthy, and Watson can be consistent, they have the ability to be even better.
While Cleveland’s defense ranked a little behind the offense, clocking in at 13th in the league in points allowed, it’s this side of the football that has one of the league’s great playmakers. End Myles Garrett won Defensive Player of the Year honors and is in his prime at age 28. Za’Darius Smith is another terrific defensive end, giving the Browns the ability to pressure on both edges. That’s enabled them to cover for a secondary that can be a little spotty.
Pittsburgh
The Steelers used the sixth-best defense in the league to overcome major instability on offense. Like the Browns, Pittsburgh can get after the quarterback from both sides, with the outside linebacker combo of T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith. On the offensive side, the Steelers have a playmaking wide receiver in George Pickens and a decent 1,000-yard rusher in Najee Harris. Almost exclusively reliant on these parts, head coach Mike Tomlin managed to squeeze out ten wins.
Into this shaky roster steps Russell Wilson. The veteran quarterback is getting the last chance to revive a career that will likely get him into Canton. Wilson still plays reasonably mistake-free football, but he had a hard time making big plays last year in Denver. With Pickens at receiver, and hopefully a better relationship with his head coach. Wilson will have a chance to succeed. That said, it’s hard to get excited when you look at this lineup. But then again, the Steelers always find a way to be in the playoff conversation around Christmas.
Cincinnati
Joe Burrow was playing hurt from the outset last year, and eventually went to the sidelines. That doomed a season that began with great hope, but the Bengals still got to 9-8. Burrow is healthy and optimism is back in vogue in Cincinnati. The Bengals have a terrific receiver in Ja’Marr Chase, a solid right tackle in Orlando Brown and no obvious weaknesses anywhere on offense. The natural upgrade that comes with Burrow’s health should alone be sufficient for a return to the playoffs.
Cincinnati’s defense couldn’t step up in Burrow’s absence and finished 21st in the NFL for points allowed. The Bengals got a two-fer when they raided Baltimore for free safety Geno Stone—strengthening an obvious weakness, while dinging their rival. They also added veteran free agent Sheldon Rankins at defensive tackle. Ultimately though, this unit will be dependent on Trey Hendrickson to do for them what Watt and Garrett do for divisional rivals—cover for weaknesses with a disruptive pass rush.
Preliminary Conclusion
Based on Over/Under win totals, all four of these teams are again expected to win more than they lose. I would concur with that. While I would rule out Pittsburgh as a serious threat to actually win the division, I’ve seen Mike Tomlin turn spare parts into winning teams too many times over nearly two decades. Based on the Over/Unders, the betting market sees a two-tiered division of Baltimore/Cincinnati as the favorites and Pittsburgh/Cleveland running behind. I would tweak that to make Baltimore a narrow favorite, Cincinnati a close second, then a bit of a dropoff, and concluding with Cleveland slightly ahead of Pittsburgh.