NFL Notebook: AFC East Preview
Our preseason tour of all eight NFL divisions begins with the AFC East. Last year, this division came down to the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins playing the final Sunday Night game of the season for the 2-seed and first place. The Bills captured their fourth straight crown. They and the Fish are both expected to do well again this year, with the New York Jets—and a healthy Aaron Rodgers—ready to make it a three-team race. Only the lowly New England Patriots, beginning the post-Bill Belichick era, are not seen as a contender.
Here’s a snapshot look at all four teams:
Buffalo
The Bills have a lot of uncertainty at wide receiver. Stefon Diggs is gone. Buffalo is going to be reliant on second-round draft pick Keon Coleman to make an immediate impact, and second-year man Khalil Shakir to step up. While Buffalo does have a good running back in James Cook, and one of the league’s top guards in David Edwards, the offensive line is a group as a little sketchy. While Cook’s running in support of Josh Allen will keep the Bills’ offense decent, the problems at receiver and the O-line in general look like an early problem.
A defensive unit that is head coach Sean McDermott’s specialty has good corners in Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas. The secondary is another unit that will rely on a second-round pick—free safety Cole Bishop—to step in and play right away. While the defense has some question marks, the combo of great corners and a good pass-rushing end in Greg Rosseau are good building blocks.
Miami
There’s a lot of flash in the offense that scored the second-most points in the league a year ago. Tau Tagovailoa generated 8.3 yards-per-attempt. Now, he adds Odell Beckham Jr. to a receiving corps that already had Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Where Miami has to be concerned is the interior of the offensive line—the guards are particularly problematic, and there is nothing more disruptive to an offense than pressure up the middle. Miami’s got the playmakers. They just need to be sure they can create the space for them to operate.
A defense that ranked 22nd was the big reason for the fade at the end of last year that blew what seemed like a sure AFC East title, and then saw a fast, non-competitive playoff exit in Kansas City. The D has the playmakers to build around. While corner Jalen Ramsey didn’t play well in 2023, a return to form would pair him up with Kendall Fuller to create a good cover combo. Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips are good edge players. Free safety Jevon Holland is one of the NFL’s best. While there’s some softness inside, that can be worked around in today’s game. An improved Fish defense can be a game-changer in this division race
NY Jets
The loss of Rodgers on the first series of the season last year sentenced the Jets to a campaign where they would finish 24th in points scored. The future Hall of Fame quarterback is presumably healthy, and he’s got a new veteran toy in wide receiver in Mike Williams, who also missed most of last year. It’s easy to see this rapidly transforming the Jets ‘ offense. They’re very good at the tackle spots, with Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses. They have a talented runner in Breece Hall. Wide receiver Garrett Wilson played well last year and will be even better with Rodgers throwing the passes and Williams taking some of the coverage pressure off. The problem? Like Miami, New York is soft on their interior. A lot of gut pressure could knock Rodgers to the sidelines again.
Head coach Robert Saleh has made the Jets a consistently good defensive team. They have playmakers at all three levels. Having the mistake-free Rodgers at quarterback likely means that New York’s defense will no longer be stuck in bad positions. There’s every reason to think this can be a top-5 unit. The quality of the Jet defense, up and down the lineup, is the most stable factor in this division right now.
New England
Jerod Mayo is the new man on the sidelines for the Patriots. Wins are going to be hard to come by for a team with no quality playmakers and a major transition ahead at quarterback. Drake Maye is the heir apparent, but veteran journeyman Jacoby Brissett will keep the seat warm for now. I’d expect to see Maye sooner rather than later.
Belichick kept the Patriots playing good defense the last couple of years and that’s the side of the ball Mayo comes from. Whether it’s the pass rushing of Matthew Judon, the play of free safety Jabrill Peppers, rising cornerback star Cristian Gonzalez, or linebacker Johlani Tavis, there are good building blocks to work with. A realistic goal for Mayo is to see the defense continue to grow, while the quarterback situation starts to work itself out. It’s tough to see the Pats improving on their 4-13 record from a year ago, but if Maye gets his feet wet and the defense can finish in the top 10, that could be a called a good season.
Preliminary Conclusion
Our final conclusions will come at the end of this process when we post final preseason predictions. My gut reaction right now is Buffalo is going to slip a bit. If Rodgers stays healthy, I believe New York is the division’s best team, but I also think that precondition might be asking more than is realistic at this stage of his career. So, I’m going to lean Miami to get the bad taste out of their mouths from the end of last year, win the division, with Buffalo and New York both firmly in the playoff hunt.